Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 873
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 7, 2021, 7:03 PM CDT for 22 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 7, 2021, 7:03 PM CDT (00:03 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 7, 2021, 9:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 22 counties
Bailey County, TX, Borden County, TX, Castro County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Howard County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Randall County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX
The radar
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 23 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 172 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1124 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -114 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2448 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 75 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 150 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 3.8
The text
As transmitted.
109
ACUS11 KWNS 080003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080003
TXZ000-NMZ000-080230-
Mesoscale Discussion 0873
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 PM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021
Areas affected...Portions of West Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 080003Z - 080230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe weather threat may increase this evening
as high-based storms moved into a more favorable environment. Owing
to the isolated and conditional nature of the severe weather threat,
a watch appears unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms that developed over the
elevated terrain of northern New Mexico and along the surface
pressure trough and dryline in eastern New Mexico and west Texas
have slowly moved eastward this afternoon. Given the very deep
inverted-V profiles, severe wind gusts will be possible with these
storms. As the storms encounter a much more moist and unstable
environment farther east, they are expected to intensify, posing a
threat for severe wind and large hail over the next few hours. A
watch is unlikely given the expected isolated nature of the severe
threat.
A conditional (and potentially more widespread) severe weather
threat might evolve farther east after 0400 UTC if the initial
storms are able to grow upscale, as the southerly low-level jet
increases into the area. Given the uncertainty involved with
convective evolution into a very unstable airmass, convective trends
will continue to be monitored.
..Jirak/Thompson.. 06/08/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 32180227 33210283 33950305 34610325 35270326 35430271
35490214 35140147 34250111 33310093 32510078 32260114
32130161 32180227SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 9:04 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Briscoe, Castro, Childress, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens and 7 more | 5 hr |
| Jun 7, 10:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Briscoe, Castro, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens, Floyd and 10 more | 92 min |
| Jun 8, 1:11 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baylor, Fisher, Haskell, Jones, Kent, King and 6 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 8, 4:53 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bandera, Blanco, Burnet, Comal, Gillespie, Hays and 9 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 8, 10:11 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cherokee, Gregg, Harrison, Marion, Panola, Rusk | 64 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.