Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 876
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 7, 2021, 10:28 PM CDT for 16 counties in Texas. It was in force for 92 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 7, 2021, 10:28 PM CDT (03:28 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 8, 2021, 12:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 92 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 245
Counties Briscoe County, TX, Castro County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Motley County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Swisher County, TX
The radar
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 48 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 3.5 hours before the alert went out and 155 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1124 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -114 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2448 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 75 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 150 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 3.8
The text
As transmitted.
297
ACUS11 KWNS 080329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080328
TXZ000-080500-
Mesoscale Discussion 0876
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 PM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021
Areas affected...Portions of the Texas Panhandle into Northwest
Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245...
Valid 080328Z - 080500Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe weather threat will persist into the overnight
hours ahead of a cluster of storms currently in the Texas Panhandle.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms currently located between Amarillo
and Lubbock is slowly drifting southeast toward increasing low-level
moisture and instability with MUCAPE around 5000 J/kg. Mid-level
westerly flow is around 25 kts, but with southeasterly surface
winds, this translates to 30 to 35 knots of effective shear. This
may help maintain storm organization as the cluster shifts
southeastward. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the
longevity of this cluster. Earlier HRRR runs showed an MCS
continuing to central Texas during the overnight hours with recent
runs struggling to assimilate the current convective activity. In
addition, the thermodynamic environment is quite favorable for
downstream maintenance with marginally favorable shear, but recent
storm trends have shown a large outflow boundary emanate from this
activity and with weak mid-level flow and slow storm motions, storm
activity may struggle on the downshear portion of this boundary
despite an otherwise favorable environment.
..Bentley.. 06/08/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 34490270 34760173 34640085 34019997 33550001 32970018
32880100 33230195 33590252 34490270SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 7:03 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bailey, Borden, Castro, Cochran, Crosby, Dawson and 16 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 7, 9:04 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Briscoe, Castro, Childress, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens and 7 more | 5 hr |
| Jun 8, 1:11 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baylor, Fisher, Haskell, Jones, Kent, King and 6 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 8, 4:53 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bandera, Blanco, Burnet, Comal, Gillespie, Hays and 9 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 8, 10:11 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cherokee, Gregg, Harrison, Marion, Panola, Rusk | 64 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.