Mesoscale Discussion 865

Issued

Jun 7, 2021, 4:12 AM CDT (09:12 UTC)

Expired

Jun 7, 2021, 5:45 AM CDT

In force

93 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 241

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

187 
ACUS11 KWNS 070913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070912 
OKZ000-TXZ000-071045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0865
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0412 AM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021

Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Big Country into southern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241...

Valid 070912Z - 071045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241
continues.

SUMMARY...A few strong gusts remain possible with generally
weakening thunderstorm activity approaching the Wichita Falls
vicinity through 5-6 AM CDT.  Renewed strong to severe thunderstorm
development remains possible to the northwest through north of
Abilene.

DISCUSSION...There has been some recent weakening of thunderstorm
intensities, with downdrafts and associated surface outflow becoming
more prominent.  The largest of these is now surging
east-northeastward at up to 30-35 kts, toward the Wichita Falls, TX
vicinity, as another smaller downburst near Fredrick, OK approaches
Wichita Falls from the northwest.  

While new/intensifying convection is possible as the outflows merge,
this may be short-lived as the more prominent east-northeastward
advancing outflow tends to progress into less unstable air across
and northeast of the Red River vicinity.  However, renewed vigorous
thunderstorm development still appears possible upstream, above the
southwestern flank of the cold pool across western north Texas, as
the modest veering low-level low-level jet focuses lift near the
periphery of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated
mixed-layer air.

..Kerr.. 06/07/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   34769864 34879772 34469686 33849750 32999818 32399865
            32729987 33560067 34079985 34589977 34769864

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.