Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 862
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 6, 2021, 8:49 PM CDT for 20 counties in Texas. It was in force for 116 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 6, 2021, 8:49 PM CDT (01:49 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 6, 2021, 10:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 116 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Armstrong County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Moore County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX
The radar
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1369 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -59 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2265 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 37 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 230 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 11.2
The text
As transmitted.
660
ACUS11 KWNS 070149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070149
TXZ000-070345-
Mesoscale Discussion 0862
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0849 PM CDT Sun Jun 06 2021
Areas affected...TX Panhandle...TX South Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 070149Z - 070345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development expected soon across the TX
Panhandle. Upscale growth into a convective line is possible, and
convective trends will be monitored closely for potential watch
issuance.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery from AMA and LUB shows two
well-defined boundaries. The eastern boundary is likely associated
with low-level moisture retreating back westward across the Caprock
while the western boundary is eastward-progressing outflow
associated with the storms across the southern High Plains. This
storm outflow is relatively strong, with both CVN and CVS both
measuring 38 kt as as it moved through. Air mass over the region is
moderately unstable and only weakly capped. 00Z AMA sounding sampled
-54 J/kg of MLCIN, with mesoanalysis and forecast soundings
suggesting similar values south into the TX South Plains. Given
these thermodynamic conditions, thunderstorm development appears
likely as the two boundaries collide. Evolution of these storms
after they develop is uncertain, but one potential scenario forecast
by recent HRRR runs is for the development of an organized,
forward-propagating convective line. Given this potential and
attendant severe threat, convective trends will be monitored closely
over the next few hours.
..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/07/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 33840280 34970271 35640256 36010192 35530094 32820097
32640261 33840280SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 9:42 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress, Collingsworth and 22 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 6, 11:47 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Briscoe, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens, Floyd, Garza and 8 more | 88 min |
| Jun 7, 1:37 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Callahan, Childress, Coleman, Cottle and 20 more | 83 min |
| Jun 7, 2:48 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Callahan, Clay, Cooke, Denton and 17 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 7, 4:12 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Foard, Hardeman, Haskell and 12 more | 93 min |
| Jun 7, 7:19 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Callahan, Comanche, Eastland, Erath, Hood, Johnson and 3 more | 116 min |
| Jun 7, 9:36 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Angelina, Bosque, Cherokee, Ellis, Falls and 16 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 7, 12:32 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Angelina, Bowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Franklin and 24 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 7, 3:08 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Sabine, San Augustine, Shelby | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.