Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 743

May 26, 20214 counties in Oklahoma; 9 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 26, 2021, 12:43 AM CDT for 4 counties in Oklahoma; 9 counties in Texas. It was in force for 92 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 26, 2021, 12:43 AM CDT (05:43 UTC)
Expired
May 26, 2021, 2:15 AM CDT
In force
92 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Donley County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-05-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1499 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-05-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 39 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1499 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-17 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1874 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
39 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
95 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

758 
ACUS11 KWNS 260544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260543 
OKZ000-TXZ000-260715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0743
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle...Far southwest OK.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 260543Z - 260715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible for the next hour or so with the
thunderstorms ongoing over the eastern TX Panhandle and far
southwest OK.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed quickly from the central
TX Panhandle southeastward into far southwest OK, fostered by the
collision of two outflow boundaries. This development occurred
within an area of strong buoyancy and minimal convective inhibition,
with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg and MLCIN near
-50 J/kg. Areas farther east have significantly more convective
inhibition as well as slightly weaker low-level southerly flow.
Given the less favorable dynamics and lack of persistent forcing for
ascent, the expectation is for these storms to gradually diminish
over the next hour or two. A weakening trend is already apparent
with the western cells. Some hail is possible with these storms,
particularly the cell over Jackson County OK, over the next hour.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/26/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35040169 35340099 34779860 33999888 34070022 34530167
            35040169

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 25, 10:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHarmon65 min
May 26, 3:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Beckham, Ellis, Roger Mills, Texas, Woodward96 min
May 26, 5:13 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAlfalfa, Beaver, Ellis, Grant, Harper, Major and 3 more7 hr
May 25, 7:21 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Coke and 33 more84 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.