Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 743
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 26, 2021, 12:43 AM CDT for 4 counties in Oklahoma; 9 counties in Texas. It was in force for 92 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 26, 2021, 12:43 AM CDT (05:43 UTC)
- Expired
- May 26, 2021, 2:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 92 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Donley County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1499 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -17 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1874 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 39 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 95 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.8
The text
As transmitted.
758
ACUS11 KWNS 260544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260543
OKZ000-TXZ000-260715-
Mesoscale Discussion 0743
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021
Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle...Far southwest OK.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 260543Z - 260715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible for the next hour or so with the
thunderstorms ongoing over the eastern TX Panhandle and far
southwest OK.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed quickly from the central
TX Panhandle southeastward into far southwest OK, fostered by the
collision of two outflow boundaries. This development occurred
within an area of strong buoyancy and minimal convective inhibition,
with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg and MLCIN near
-50 J/kg. Areas farther east have significantly more convective
inhibition as well as slightly weaker low-level southerly flow.
Given the less favorable dynamics and lack of persistent forcing for
ascent, the expectation is for these storms to gradually diminish
over the next hour or two. A weakening trend is already apparent
with the western cells. Some hail is possible with these storms,
particularly the cell over Jackson County OK, over the next hour.
..Mosier/Grams.. 05/26/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 35040169 35340099 34779860 33999888 34070022 34530167
35040169SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 10:10 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Harmon | 65 min |
| May 26, 3:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Beckham, Ellis, Roger Mills, Texas, Woodward | 96 min |
| May 26, 5:13 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alfalfa, Beaver, Ellis, Grant, Harper, Major and 3 more | 7 hr |
| May 25, 7:21 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Coke and 33 more | 84 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.