Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 751
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 26, 2021, 3:24 PM CDT for 6 counties in Oklahoma; 31 counties in Texas. It was in force for 96 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 26, 2021, 3:24 PM CDT (20:24 UTC)
- Expired
- May 26, 2021, 5:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 96 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 37 counties
Beaver County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Texas County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Moore County, TX, Motley County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Wheeler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 27 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 26 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1081 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -237 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1626 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 184 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 192 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 3.0
The text
As transmitted.
726
ACUS11 KWNS 262024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262024
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-262200-
Mesoscale Discussion 0751
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021
Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle and South
Plains...and into portions of western Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 262024Z - 262200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Severe risk is expected to gradually increase across the
Texas South Plains and into the Panhandle over the next couple of
hours. WW may be required.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar loops show initial
convective development underway over the Roosevelt County NM
vicinity, near the state line. The storms appear to be initiating
just west of an eastward-mixing dryline as high-based convection,
but with time, additional development is expected eastward into
Texas, where a very unstable airmass (3000 to 4000 J/kg mixed-layer
CAPE) resides.
Moderate/veering flow with height across this region appears
sufficient -- given the degree of CAPE east of the dryline -- to
support rotating storms, and attendant risk for very large hail.
Damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly later if storms
grow upscale into linear segments locally.
..Goss/Hart.. 05/26/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33550314 34550260 35360224 36870158 36960104 36739917
36069910 33430081 33100296 33550314SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 10:10 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Harmon | 65 min |
| May 26, 12:43 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Tillman | 92 min |
| May 26, 5:13 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alfalfa, Beaver, Ellis, Grant, Harper, Major and 3 more | 7 hr |
| May 25, 7:21 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Coke and 33 more | 84 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.