Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 733
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 25, 2021, 12:32 PM CDT for Choctaw County, McCurtain County, Pushmataha County, Oklahoma; 31 counties in Texas. It was in force for 118 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 25, 2021, 12:32 PM CDT (17:32 UTC)
- Expired
- May 25, 2021, 2:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 118 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 34 counties
Choctaw County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Anderson County, TX, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Delta County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Morris County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Rains County, TX, Red River County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Smith County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Wood County, TX
The radar
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 130 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 668 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -29 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 690 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 15 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 150 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 164 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
919
ACUS11 KWNS 251733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251732
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-251930-
Mesoscale Discussion 0733
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021
Areas affected...far southeast OK into northeast TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 251732Z - 251930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong gusts are possible through the afternoon
across far southeast OK into northeast TX.
DISCUSSION...Strong heating during the morning and early afternoon
has allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s amid
upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints. This is aiding in weak to
moderate destabilization across the region, and new convective
development has been noted in radar and satellite imagery ahead of a
remnant MCS and associated MCV across north Texas. Deep layer flow
is not particularly strong, and effective shear is expected to
remain modest. Nevertheless, adequate instability coupled with high
PW values and the influence of the eastward-advancing MCV near the
Red River, should support isolated to widely scattered strong
convection. This activity could produce wind gusts to around 40-45
kt through the afternoon. Low level shear also will remain weak, but
backed low level flow ahead of the MCV is resulting in small, but
favorably curved low level hodographs. Given the moist low level
environment and moderate low level instability, a brief tornado also
could occur with any stronger/better organized cell. Overall, the
lack of stronger shear should limit a more organized threat, with
stronger cells being somewhat transient in nature. A watch is not
expected at this time.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/25/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 32849650 33659628 34289592 34389579 34529543 34539468
34229438 33449430 32449444 31629495 31099584 30809682
30989721 31299736 31489734 31929674 32849650SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 4:08 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Beckham, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Roger Mills | 7 hr |
| May 24, 8:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Borden, Briscoe, Crosby, Dawson, Dickens, Floyd and 12 more | 94 min |
| May 24, 11:43 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baylor, Foard, King, Knox | 2 hr |
| May 25, 2:02 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brewster, Crane, Pecos, Terrell, Upton, Ward | 118 min |
| May 25, 2:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Crosby, Dawson and 15 more | 94 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.