Mesoscale Discussion 731

Issued

May 24, 2021, 11:43 PM CDT (04:43 UTC)

Expired

May 25, 2021, 1:45 AM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

5%

Counties Baylor County, TX, Foard County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

377 
ACUS11 KWNS 250443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250443 
TXZ000-250645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0731
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

Areas affected...portions of northwest Texas.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 250443Z - 250645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated, locally severe gusts are possible across parts
of northwest Texas through about 0630Z.  A watch is not anticipated
due to limited coverage/duration.

DISCUSSION...The merger of several multicellular thunderstorm
clusters near and just above the Caprock, over the last 1-2 hours,
has led to a loosely organized, bowing, small MCS surging eastward
off the Caprock and onto the northern Low Rolling Plains of
northwest Texas.  As the merger was underway, a West Texas Mesonet
site in Crosby County recorded a 53-kt gust.   

Over the last hour, LUB/LDR radar velocities have indicated a
rear-inflow jet over portions of Motley, King, Cottle, and Dickens
Counties around a mile above ground level.  How much of this flow is
reaching the surface is uncertain, as other mesonet sites have
clocked subsevere gusts; however, localized winds near or briefly
exceeding severe limits may occur as the complex proceeds eastward
toward Wilbarger, Baylor and perhaps parts of adjacent counties,
before it substantially weakens.  Deep shear and ambient flow aloft
are weak, and the low-level jet will remain largely orthogonal to
the storm-motion vector.  However, with weak MLCINH still evident
based on modified model soundings (in a major 00Z RAOB data void),
cold-pool-driven forced ascent may sustain this activity for another
1-2 hours.

..Edwards.. 05/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   33510070 33780019 34130006 34380027 34269965 33929902
            33479904 33349979 33510070

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.