Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 728

May 24, 202110 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 24, 2021, 8:07 PM CDT for 10 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 83 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 24, 2021, 8:07 PM CDT (01:07 UTC)
Expired
May 24, 2021, 9:30 PM CDT
In force
83 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 200

Counties Finney County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Meade County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2021-05-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 520 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2021-05-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 49 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
520 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-135 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1195 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
49 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
69 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

603 
ACUS11 KWNS 250108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250107 
KSZ000-250230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0728
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

Areas affected...Southwest Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 200...

Valid 250107Z - 250230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 200 continues.

SUMMARY...A narrow window for tornado potential still exists in
southwestern Kansas as the low-level jet increases. Some potential
for upscale growth exists. This activity could push eastward. Trends
will be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch later
this evening for parts of southwestern/south-central Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Two supercells are ongoing in southwestern Kansas, the
strongest of which is located along the Kearny/Finney County line.
Given that this activity has remained discrete, the tornado
potential will continue for the next 1-2 hours. The strongest
increase in the low-level jet will not likely occur until after 10
PM CDT, which will also mean the boundary layer will be increasingly
stable at that time. Even so, there will be modest increases in
low-level hodograph size this evening. Eastward progression is not
likely to be significant initially given the capping on the 00Z DDC
sounding, though activity could potentially move into Gray County.
If activity can congeal and develop a cold pool, more eastward
propagation would be possible. This activity would see a greater
threat for damaging winds and isolated large hail. Conditions will
be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch to the east
later this evening.

..Wendt.. 05/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...

LAT...LON   38020196 38230151 38230079 37820013 37250022 37040045
            37130172 37360203 38020196

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 24, 7:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Ellis, Gove, Graham, Jewell, Lincoln and 9 more57 min
May 24, 10:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClark, Comanche, Finney, Ford, Grant, Gray and 4 more2 hr
May 24, 11:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGreeley, Sherman, Wallace, Wichita94 min
May 25, 4:04 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Graham, Norton, Rawlins, Sheridan and 3 more116 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.