Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 728
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 24, 2021, 8:07 PM CDT for 10 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 83 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 24, 2021, 8:07 PM CDT (01:07 UTC)
- Expired
- May 24, 2021, 9:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 83 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Tornado watch 200
Counties Finney County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Meade County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 520 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -135 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1195 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 49 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 69 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.4
The text
As transmitted.
603
ACUS11 KWNS 250108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250107
KSZ000-250230-
Mesoscale Discussion 0728
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021
Areas affected...Southwest Kansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 200...
Valid 250107Z - 250230Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 200 continues.
SUMMARY...A narrow window for tornado potential still exists in
southwestern Kansas as the low-level jet increases. Some potential
for upscale growth exists. This activity could push eastward. Trends
will be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch later
this evening for parts of southwestern/south-central Kansas.
DISCUSSION...Two supercells are ongoing in southwestern Kansas, the
strongest of which is located along the Kearny/Finney County line.
Given that this activity has remained discrete, the tornado
potential will continue for the next 1-2 hours. The strongest
increase in the low-level jet will not likely occur until after 10
PM CDT, which will also mean the boundary layer will be increasingly
stable at that time. Even so, there will be modest increases in
low-level hodograph size this evening. Eastward progression is not
likely to be significant initially given the capping on the 00Z DDC
sounding, though activity could potentially move into Gray County.
If activity can congeal and develop a cold pool, more eastward
propagation would be possible. This activity would see a greater
threat for damaging winds and isolated large hail. Conditions will
be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch to the east
later this evening.
..Wendt.. 05/25/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...
LAT...LON 38020196 38230151 38230079 37820013 37250022 37040045
37130172 37360203 38020196SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 7:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Ellis, Gove, Graham, Jewell, Lincoln and 9 more | 57 min |
| May 24, 10:46 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clark, Comanche, Finney, Ford, Grant, Gray and 4 more | 2 hr |
| May 24, 11:41 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Greeley, Sherman, Wallace, Wichita | 94 min |
| May 25, 4:04 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Graham, Norton, Rawlins, Sheridan and 3 more | 116 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.