Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 727

May 24, 202115 counties in Kansas; Franklin County, Harlan County, Webster County, Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 24, 2021, 7:33 PM CDT for 15 counties in Kansas; Franklin County, Harlan County, Webster County, Nebraska. It was in force for 57 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 24, 2021, 7:33 PM CDT (00:33 UTC)
Expired
May 24, 2021, 8:30 PM CDT
In force
57 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
60%

Counties Barton County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Ness County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Smith County, KS, Trego County, KS, Franklin County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Webster County, NE

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 188 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2021-05-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 520 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2021-05-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 49 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
520 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-135 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1195 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
49 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
69 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

583 
ACUS11 KWNS 250033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250033 
NEZ000-KSZ000-250130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0727
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

Areas affected...Parts of central Kansas to extreme southern
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 250033Z - 250130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are moving out of WW 200 with some potential for
further development to the east this evening. There does remain some
uncertainty with regard to storm coverage, but a WW may be needed in
the next hour.

DISCUSSION...With convection now moving towards the edge of Tornado
Watch 200, a downstream WW may be needed in the next hour. The
strongest storm currently is in Trego County moving east. There is
at least some possibility that additional development may occur as
the low-level jet increases modestly this evening across central
Kansas. Shear becomes weaker with eastward extent and upper-level
support is also relatively weak. Should storms persist/develop,
large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threats.

..Wendt/Edwards.. 05/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38840075 39919978 40169954 40409927 40319850 40279817
            39709801 38939806 38439856 38319928 38389997 38840075

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 24, 8:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFinney, Grant, Gray, Hamilton, Haskell, Kearny and 4 more83 min
May 24, 10:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClark, Comanche, Finney, Ford, Grant, Gray and 4 more2 hr
May 24, 11:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGreeley, Sherman, Wallace, Wichita94 min
May 25, 4:04 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Graham, Norton, Rawlins, Sheridan and 3 more116 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.