Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 732
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 25, 2021, 4:04 AM CDT for 9 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 116 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 25, 2021, 4:04 AM CDT (09:04 UTC)
- Expired
- May 25, 2021, 6:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 116 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Cheyenne County, KS, Decatur County, KS, Graham County, KS, Norton County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 00:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 190 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3201 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 62 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 14 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 144 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
775
ACUS11 KWNS 250905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250904
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-251100-
Mesoscale Discussion 0732
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0404 AM CDT Tue May 25 2021
Areas affected...Northwest/North-Central KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 250904Z - 251100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few stronger storms are possible over the next hour or
two across northwest KS.
DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have quickly developed over the
past half hour across far northwest KS as warm-air advection
augments large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to a modest
shortwave trough. Mesoanalysis estimates max mid-level (i.e. 2-6 km
AGL) lapse rates are 7 to 7.5 deg C per km, which support moderate
buoyancy and MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg. This region is also on the
southern edge of slightly stronger mid-level flow, which is
contributing to effective bulk shear around 25 kt. These conditions
are marginally supportive of a few stronger storms which could
produce hail.
However, the general expectation is for the southerly low to
mid-level flow associated with the warm-air advection to weaken over
the next few hours, with this lack of ascent leading to relatively
short-lived storms. Additionally, surface observations over
northeast CO suggest the cold front has begun to push southward
across the central High Plains, resulting in a less favorable
thermodynamic environment over western portions of this thunderstorm
cluster.
..Mosier/Grams.. 05/25/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39060234 39740230 40060084 40029952 39579927 39080011
38870199 39060234SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 7:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Ellis, Gove, Graham, Jewell, Lincoln and 9 more | 57 min |
| May 24, 8:07 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Finney, Grant, Gray, Hamilton, Haskell, Kearny and 4 more | 83 min |
| May 24, 10:46 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clark, Comanche, Finney, Ford, Grant, Gray and 4 more | 2 hr |
| May 24, 11:41 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Greeley, Sherman, Wallace, Wichita | 94 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.