Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 730

May 24, 20214 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 24, 2021, 10:41 PM MDT for 4 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 94 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 24, 2021, 10:41 PM MDT (04:41 UTC)
Expired
May 25, 2021, 12:15 AM MDT
In force
94 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Greeley County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 00:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Denver, CO at 00:00Z on 2021-05-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Denver, CO at 00:00Z on 2021-05-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 14 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
3201 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
62 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
14 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
144 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

504 
ACUS11 KWNS 250441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250441 
KSZ000-COZ000-250615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0730
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

Areas affected...west through northwest KS through far eastern CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 250441Z - 250615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms developing over western KS and far eastern CO may
become capable of producing a few instances of large hail. At this
time, a WW issuance will probably not be needed, but trends will
continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...An isolated storm has formed over western KS in Greeley
county, and additional storms will likely develop in association
with augmented isentropic ascent resulting from a strengthening
southerly low-level jet interacting with a stalled front. The
atmosphere in this region remains moderately unstable with 1500-2000
J/kg MUCAPE, 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt effective
bulk shear. This environment might support a few updrafts capable of
producing isolated large hail next few hours.

..Dial/Edwards.. 05/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   38440128 38390211 38960247 39520236 39600160 39170113
            38440128

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 24, 6:33 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Ellis, Gove, Graham, Jewell, Lincoln and 9 more57 min
May 24, 7:07 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFinney, Grant, Gray, Hamilton, Haskell, Kearny and 4 more83 min
May 24, 9:46 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClark, Comanche, Finney, Ford, Grant, Gray and 4 more2 hr
May 25, 3:04 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Graham, Norton, Rawlins, Sheridan and 3 more116 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.