Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 487

May 3, 202121 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 3, 2021, 10:04 AM EDT for 21 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 86 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 3, 2021, 10:04 AM EDT (14:04 UTC)
Expired
May 3, 2021, 11:30 AM EDT
In force
86 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
60%
All 21 counties

Barrow County, GA, Butts County, GA, Carroll County, GA, Clayton County, GA, Cobb County, GA, Coweta County, GA, DeKalb County, GA, Douglas County, GA, Fayette County, GA, Forsyth County, GA, Fulton County, GA, Gwinnett County, GA, Henry County, GA, Jackson County, GA, Meriwether County, GA, Newton County, GA, Oconee County, GA, Pike County, GA, Rockdale County, GA, Spalding County, GA, Walton County, GA

The radar

The Atlanta radar (KFFC), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 12:00Z, 2.1 hours before the alert went out and 41 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 12:00Z on 2021-05-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 674 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 12:00Z on 2021-05-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 207 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
674 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-54 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
671 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
207 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
272 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.8
Supercell composite
4.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

073 
ACUS11 KWNS 031404
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031404 
GAZ000-031530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0487
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0904 AM CDT Mon May 03 2021

Areas affected...northern and central Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 031404Z - 031530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may undergo some intensification through the
morning and become capable of producing damaging wind and isolated
tornadoes. Trends are being monitored for a possible WW.

DISCUSSION...Late this morning storms continue developing within
corridor of ascent along a warm conveyor belt associated with 40-50
kt southwesterly low-level jet. The atmosphere remains marginally to
moderately unstable with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Dewpoints rising
into the upper 60s and a modest amount of heating will result in
sufficient instability for surface based storms where low level
hodographs and deep shear are favorable for supercells with
low-level mesocyclones.

..Dial/Grams.. 05/03/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...

LAT...LON   33758513 34278415 34208339 33808338 33218402 32888490
            33758513

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 3, 10:29 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCBaldwin, Barrow, Bartow, Bibb, Butts, Carroll and 45 more5 hr
May 3, 11:20 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClayton, DeKalb, Gwinnett, Rockdale55 min
May 3, 1:03 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarrow, Butts, Clarke, Clayton, Cobb, Columbia and 30 more87 min
May 3, 1:25 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCBurke, Columbia, Elbert, Lincoln, McDuffie, Richmond6 hr
May 3, 3:05 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Barrow, Bibb, Butts, Carroll, Chattahoochee and 36 more55 min
May 3, 3:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaldwin, Barrow, Bibb, Butts, Carroll, Chattahoochee and 55 more6 hr
May 3, 4:26 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCRichmond94 min
May 3, 5:00 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Bibb, Butts, Calhoun, Carroll, Chattahoochee and 45 more90 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.