Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 465

April 28, 202143 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 28, 2021, 11:03 PM CDT for 43 counties in Texas. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 28, 2021, 11:03 PM CDT (04:03 UTC)
Expired
Apr 29, 2021, 1:00 AM CDT
In force
117 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 121...122
All 43 counties

Atascosa County, TX, Bandera County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comal County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Falls County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Gonzales County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hays County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Lee County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Llano County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Medina County, TX, Milam County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Travis County, TX, Williamson County, TX, Wilson County, TX

The radar

The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 4.1 hours before the alert went out and 241 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-04-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1526 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-04-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 191 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1526 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-11 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1058 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
73 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
191 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
154 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.2
Supercell composite
9.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

897 
ACUS11 KWNS 290404
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290403 
TXZ000-290600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0465
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

Areas affected...Centarl and Northeast Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 121...122...

Valid 290403Z - 290600Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 121, 122 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue into the early
overnight hours from the Texas Hill Country north-northeastward into
parts of northeast Texas. Large hail, wind damage and an isolated
tornado threat will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from San Antonio and Fort
Worth shows several strong to severe thunderstorms located from
between Del Rio and San Antonio extending northward to near
Stephenville, Texas. The storms are located along and just to the
west of an inverted surface trough. The RAP shows an axis of
moderate instability near the surface trough with MLCAPE estimated
in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs near this axis of
instability have 0-6 km shear in the 55 to 65 kt range. The
instability and shear will likely keep the severe threat going late
this evening into the early overnight period. Large hail and wind
damage will be the primary threats with supercells that persist. An
isolated tornado threat may also exist with any supercell that is
dominant.

..Broyles.. 04/29/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   28729844 28899794 29499740 30539656 31239619 32739587
            33279624 33249707 32749771 31649839 30319928 29379966
            28869907 28729844

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 28, 7:01 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBastrop, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, Gonzales, Guadalupe and 4 more89 min
Apr 28, 7:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCallahan, Coleman, Collin, Comanche, Cooke, Dallas and 24 more119 min
Apr 28, 7:55 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBosque, Collin, Comanche, Dallas, Delta, Denton and 29 more6 hr
Apr 28, 9:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBastrop, Bexar, Caldwell, Colorado, Comal, Fayette and 4 more92 min
Apr 28, 9:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Collin, Dallas, Delta and 18 more116 min
Apr 28, 10:22 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Burnet and 27 more7 hr
Apr 29, 1:09 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Collin, Dallas, Delta and 22 more2 hr
Apr 29, 2:01 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Delta, Franklin, Gregg and 15 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.