Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 323
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 7, 2021, 1:30 PM CDT for 19 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 90 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 7, 2021, 1:30 PM CDT (18:30 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 7, 2021, 3:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 90 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 74
Counties Camden County, MO, Christian County, MO, Cole County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 790 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -275 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 767 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 45 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 186 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 223 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.5
The text
As transmitted.
052
ACUS11 KWNS 071830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071830
MOZ000-ARZ000-072000-
Mesoscale Discussion 0323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021
Areas affected...Parts of southwest through south central Missouri
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 74...
Valid 071830Z - 072000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 74
continues.
SUMMARY...An evolving line of thunderstorms is expected to continue
to intensify and organize through 2-4 PM CDT, and pose increasing
potential for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes, as it advances east-northeastward across the region.
DISCUSSION...A gradual increase in thunderstorm development is
ongoing within a narrow pre-cold frontal corridor now generally east
of the western Missouri state border area. Latest objective
instability analyses suggest that strongest boundary-layer
destabilization is occurring along an axis, roughly, across Branson,
Springfield and the Lake of the Ozarks vicinity, into the
Columbia/Jefferson City areas. Inflow of this air seems likely to
provide support for considerable further convective intensification
and upscale growth through 19-21Z. In the presence of at least
35-40+ kt of southwesterly deep-layer mean shear, activity is
expected to take on increasing organization accompanied by the risk
for potentially damaging wind gusts. This may include at least some
supercell structures which could pose a risk for a tornado or two,
particularly near/west of the West Plains vicinity, perhaps as far
north as Vichy, where clockwise-curved low-level hodographs are
forecast to become largest by around 4 PM CDT.
..Kerr.. 04/07/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 37709354 38269310 38699284 38789239 38539193 37219195
36639228 36269288 36749360 37119370 37709354SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 6:40 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Camden, Cedar, Christian, Cole, Dade and 20 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 7, 10:18 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Barton, Bates, Benton, Boone, Buchanan and 42 more | 117 min |
| Apr 7, 12:02 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Audrain, Barry, Benton, Boone, Caldwell and 78 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 7, 2:22 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Howell, Oregon, Ozark, Stone, Taney | 53 min |
| Apr 7, 3:13 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Cole, Crawford, Dent and 21 more | 92 min |
| Apr 7, 3:40 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ozark | 65 min |
| Apr 7, 5:04 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Audrain, Callaway, Clark, Franklin, Gasconade and 17 more | 116 min |
| Apr 7, 5:12 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dunklin, Pemiscot | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.