Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 234

March 22, 2021Choctaw County, Oklahoma; 12 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 22, 2021, 10:44 PM CDT for Choctaw County, Oklahoma; 12 counties in Texas. It was in force for 61 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 22, 2021, 10:44 PM CDT (03:44 UTC)
Expired
Mar 22, 2021, 11:45 PM CDT
In force
61 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Choctaw County, OK, Delta County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Rains County, TX, Red River County, TX, Titus County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Wood County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 183 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 169 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-03-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-03-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 404 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
679 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
404 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
672 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

779 
ACUS11 KWNS 230344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230344 
OKZ000-TXZ000-230445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

Areas affected...northeastern Texas and far southeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 230344Z - 230445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A well-organized linear segment continues to move
northeastward across Hunt County, Texas and will pose a damaging
wind threat for the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...A fairly pronounced line of storms continued to migrate
northeastward across northeastern Texas currently.  This line has a
history of near-severe wind gusts (46 knots at Rockwell) over the
past hour.  Its organization is likely aiding in persistence beyond
the extent of the instability axis (back over central/north-central
Texas), though strong shear and forcing for ascent aloft will likely
aid in persistence of this storm for at least the next hour or so. 
One-inch hail stones are also possible with this system.

..Cook/Guyer.. 03/23/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33689626 34089605 34209574 34239519 34119489 33709483
            33169494 32759507 32509568 32539630 32769642 33689626

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 22, 8:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Brown and 53 more65 min
Mar 22, 10:21 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Bastrop, Bell, Bexar, Blanco, Bosque and 52 more54 min
Mar 22, 11:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAustin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Brazos and 29 more5 hr
Mar 23, 1:29 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos and 29 more91 min
Mar 23, 3:19 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Austin, Colorado, DeWitt, Fayette, Fort Bend and 20 more56 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.