Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 233

March 22, 202158 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 22, 2021, 10:21 PM CDT for 58 counties in Texas. It was in force for 54 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 22, 2021, 10:21 PM CDT (03:21 UTC)
Expired
Mar 22, 2021, 11:15 PM CDT
In force
54 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 45
All 58 counties

Bandera County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comal County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Denton County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Gonzales County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hays County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Lee County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Llano County, TX, Madison County, TX, Mason County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Mills County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Travis County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Washington County, TX, Williamson County, TX, Wise County, TX

The radar

The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 3.4 hours before the alert went out and 192 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-03-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-03-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 404 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
679 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
404 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
672 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

754 
ACUS11 KWNS 230321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230321 
TXZ000-230415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0233
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

Areas affected...central and north Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...

Valid 230321Z - 230415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45
continues.

SUMMARY...Recent ramp up in hail and damaging wind risk has been
noted over the past hour or so...

DISCUSSION...Convection across WW 45 appears to be responding well
to increased low-level shear (associated with strengthening of 850mb
flow across the region) and destabilization aloft with steep
mid-level lapse rates overspreading the moist boundary layer
(characterized by near 60F dewpoints).  A couple of fairly
impressive supercell structures have been noted west/northwest of
Austin and hail reports as large as 2.5 inch in diameter have also
been noted.  Linear segments nearer the DFW area have also resulted
in a recent 46 knot wind gusts near Rockwall, Texas.

Latest high-resolution guidance is most aggressive with longevity of
ongoing convection from near ACT to 50 NW SAT.  These storms should
migrate east-southeastward and continue to pose a risk of hail/wind
over the next couple hours while approaching the eastern extent of
WW 45.  Trends will be monitored for the possibility of either local
extensions of WW 45 in space and time or a new Severe Thunderstorm
Watch for downstream areas.

..Cook/Guyer.. 03/23/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29529711 29399767 29379891 29599963 30309951 31499894
            32289867 33009829 33379728 33369629 32999583 31799577
            30729572 29999614 29529711

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 22, 8:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Brown and 53 more65 min
Mar 22, 10:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDelta, Fannin, Franklin, Hopkins, Hunt, Kaufman and 6 more61 min
Mar 22, 11:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAustin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Brazos and 29 more5 hr
Mar 23, 1:29 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos and 29 more91 min
Mar 23, 3:19 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Austin, Colorado, DeWitt, Fayette, Fort Bend and 20 more56 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.