Alert archive / Alabama / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 204

March 17, 20217 counties in Alabama

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 17, 2021, 1:01 PM CDT for 7 counties in Alabama. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 17, 2021, 1:01 PM CDT (18:01 UTC)
Expired
Mar 17, 2021, 2:30 PM CDT
In force
89 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 29

Counties Autauga County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL

The radar

The Maxwell AFB radar (KMXX), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 12:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Birmingham, AL at 12:00Z on 2021-03-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 658 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Birmingham, AL at 12:00Z on 2021-03-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 169 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
658 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-112 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
759 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
169 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
301 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
2.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

383 
ACUS11 KWNS 171802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171801 
ALZ000-171930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Areas affected...portions of central Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 29...

Valid 171801Z - 171930Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 29 continues.

SUMMARY...A local expansion of tornado watch 29 may be needed.

DISCUSSION...A favorable tornadic environment exists across central
Alabama with temperatures in the mid 70s and dewpoints in the upper
60s yielding MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg. In addition, this area
is in close proximity to the warm front where low-level winds are
backed and low-level SRH is maximized. A supercell which developed
in Dallas County has taken advantage of this favorable tornadic
environment with radar evidence of a tornado near the Dallas Autauga
county line. There is considerable question regarding the longevity
of the tornado threat with this activity. The warm sector is
advecting northeastward, but this storm may eventually move to the
cool side of the boundary. However, given the potential for this
storm to potentially move out of watch 29 and additional shower
development to it's south and southeast which could deepen and
become tornadic, watch 29 may need to be expanded into eastern
Alabama.

..Bentley/Grams.. 03/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...

LAT...LON   32798706 33238651 33308594 33088554 32718535 32368592
            32078630 32128689 32358707 32798706

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 17, 10:56 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Bibb, Chilton, Choctaw, Clarke, Coosa and 17 more2 hr
Mar 17, 11:36 AM CDTTornado Watch PDSSPCAutauga, Bibb, Blount, Chilton, Choctaw, Clarke and 25 more7 hr
Mar 17, 12:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, Clarke, Marengo58 min
Mar 17, 1:26 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCalhoun, Chambers, Cherokee, Cleburne, Elmore, Etowah and 7 more5 hr
Mar 17, 1:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMobile90 min
Mar 17, 2:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBibb, Chilton, Dallas, Hale, Marengo, Perry96 min
Mar 17, 5:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Bibb, Blount, Bullock, Butler, Calhoun and 32 more86 min
Mar 17, 6:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColbert, Franklin, Lamar, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Marion66 min
Mar 17, 6:48 PM CDTTornado Watch PDSSPCAutauga, Baldwin, Barbour, Bibb, Blount, Bullock and 44 more8 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.