Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1977

December 10, 20217 counties in Iowa; 14 counties in Minnesota; 12 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 10, 2021, 12:27 PM CST for 7 counties in Iowa; 14 counties in Minnesota; 12 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 10, 2021, 12:27 PM CST (18:27 UTC)
Expired
Dec 10, 2021, 4:30 PM CST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Heavy snow
All 33 counties

Clay County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Emmet County, IA, Lyon County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Cottonwood County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Martin County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Rock County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Bon Homme County, SD, Clay County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

The radar

The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 224 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2021-12-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2021-12-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -67 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2000 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
79 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-67 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-9 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

614 
ACUS11 KWNS 101827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101827 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-102230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1977
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Areas affected...Far Northeast NE...Southeast
SD...Southwest/South-Central MN...Northwest IA

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 101827Z - 102230Z

SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to increase from northeast NE
across southeast SD and northwest IA and into southern MN over the
next few hours. One inch per hour rates will be common, with some
isolated areas briefly experiencing two inch per hour rates.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a consolidating band of
moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall stretching from
north-central NE into southern MN. Observational trends and recent
guidance both suggest this band will persist across the region for
the next several hours, with some additional
intensification/organization possible as the western branch of warm
conveyor continues to wrap around the low-level cyclone. This
intensification should lead to a greater prevalence of heavy snow
fall, with 1" per hour rates becoming more common/widespread.
Isolated instances of 2" per hour rates are possible, particularly
later this afternoon in the vicinity of  SD/MN/IA border
intersection.

..Mosier.. 12/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

LAT...LON   43359842 44169700 44529509 44349351 43629345 42859582
            42609834 43359842

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 10, 3:31 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Dickinson, Emmet, Kossuth, Lyon, Osceola and 2 more4 hr
Dec 9, 9:49 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBennett, Fall River, Gregory, Todd5 hr
Dec 10, 2:39 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBennett, Custer, Fall River, Jackson, Mellette, Oglala Lakota and 2 more4 hr
Dec 10, 9:10 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAurora, Bon Homme, Brule, Charles Mix, Davison, Douglas and 11 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.