Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1975

December 10, 20218 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 10, 2021, 1:39 AM MST for 8 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 10, 2021, 1:39 AM MST (08:39 UTC)
Expired
Dec 10, 2021, 5:45 AM MST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Heavy snow

Counties Bennett County, SD, Custer County, SD, Fall River County, SD, Jackson County, SD, Mellette County, SD, Oglala Lakota County, SD, Todd County, SD, Tripp County, SD

The radar

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KUNR), launched 00:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 104 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Rapid City, SD at 00:00Z on 2021-12-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Rapid City, SD at 00:00Z on 2021-12-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 34 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156175Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
799 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
74 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
34 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
1 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

885 
ACUS11 KWNS 100839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100839 
SDZ000-NEZ000-101245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1975
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Areas affected...portions of southwest into south-central SD

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 100839Z - 101245Z

SUMMARY...A narrow corridor of moderate to heavy snow will continue
to slowly lift northward across parts of southwest into
south-central SD through early morning. Snowfall rates may briefly
reach 1 inch per hour within this narrow snow band.

DISCUSSION...A narrow snow band extending west to east from northern
Fall River to central Tripp County in southern SD will slowly shift
northward the next few hours. This snow band is being driven by
strong warm advection and frontogenesis around 700 mb. Moderate
ascent will continue to overspread the region as a mid/upper
shortwave trough ejects eastward toward the Four Corners and central
Rockies vicinity. However, the dendritic growth zone will remain
somewhat shallow within the area of stronger warm advection and
midlevel frontogenesis, limiting greater snowfall efficiency. This
should temper overall rates, but narrow/brief areas of heavy snow
are possible the next few hours.

..Leitman.. 12/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   43010343 43040369 43140391 43270403 43530405 43650398
            43680392 43790353 43890252 43760006 43679952 43589921
            43309919 43169921 42979947 42940086 42990287 43010343

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 9, 8:49 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBennett, Fall River, Gregory, Todd5 hr
Dec 10, 8:10 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAurora, Bon Homme, Brule, Charles Mix, Davison, Douglas and 11 more4 hr
Dec 10, 11:27 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBon Homme, Clay, Hanson, Hutchinson, Lake, Lincoln and 6 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.