Mesoscale Discussion 1938

Issued

Nov 10, 2021, 5:29 PM CST (23:29 UTC)

Expired

Nov 10, 2021, 7:30 PM CST

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 546

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

163 
ACUS11 KWNS 102330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102329 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-110130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1938
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

Areas affected...portions of northeast Kansas into northwest
Missouri and far southwest Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546...

Valid 102329Z - 110130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546
continues.

SUMMARY...A limited severe threat continues across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 546, with damaging gusts the primary threat,
though some small hail is also possible.

DISCUSSION...An analysis of the latest METAR observations depict a
surface low, located roughly along the northeast KS/southeast NE
border, which continues to progress northeastward along with a
trailing surface cold front across eastern KS. A marginally buoyant
airmass is gradually advecting northward across central into
northern MO, characterized by a surface airmass of near 70 F
temperatures/upper 50s F dewpoints, overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level
lapse rates (per 23Z mesoanalysis). 

Latest KEAX radar data shows modest upscale growth of convection
across eastern KS, which is progressing eastward towards the
marginally buoyant airmass of 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While 30-40 kts of
effective bulk shear is present across central into northern MO, the
approaching convection is not overly robust, and buoyancy is
expected to remain mediocre through the evening. Predominantly
linear modes of convection suggest that a couple of strong to
damaging wind gusts and bouts of small hail remain possible this
evening. An additional WW issuance is not expected into northern or
western MO, though a local WW extension may be done.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 11/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38249643 39279590 39639539 39849495 40189432 40489369
            40629328 40489304 39699342 39169361 38739377 38539391
            38259426 38079540 38249643

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.