Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1934
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 10, 2021, 10:53 AM CST for 16 counties in Kansas; Atchison County, Holt County, Missouri; Nemaha County, Pawnee County, Richardson County, Nebraska. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 10, 2021, 10:53 AM CST (16:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 10, 2021, 1:00 PM CST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 21 counties
Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Chase County, KS, Clay County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marion County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Atchison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Nemaha County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE
The radar
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 28 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 72 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 24 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -36 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 634 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 136 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 154 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
211
ACUS11 KWNS 101653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101653
KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-101900-
Mesoscale Discussion 1934
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021
Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Southeast Nebraska...Northwest
Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 101653Z - 101900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through
early-mid afternoon across parts of eastern KS into southeast NE.
It is uncertain whether a watch will be needed, but trends are being
monitored.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have recently formed in
Sedgwick/Harvey counties KS. Other convection is beginning to form
farther northeast near MHK. All of this activity is associated with
increasing large-scale forcing ahead of a shortwave trough moving
into western KS. Moderately strong south-southwesterly low-level
winds in this area are enhancing warm advection, and are
transporting a more moist air mass into the area. Forecast
soundings suggest sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear, along with
relatively cool mid-level temperatures, to pose a risk of hail in
the stronger cells. Gusty/damaging winds or even brief spin-ups may
also become a threat this afternoon if convection can sufficiently
organize and take advantage of the backed near-surface winds. All
of this is tempered by widespread cloud cover and variability among
CAMs regarding the evolution of storms. Convective trends will be
monitored for increasing organization and the possibility of a watch
in the next few hours.
..Hart/Guyer.. 11/10/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39439730 40029690 40589589 40419521 39619521 38779565
38119628 37669714 37949743 39439730SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 1:55 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Coffey, Doniphan, Douglas, Franklin and 10 more | 6 hr |
| Nov 10, 3:26 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Chautauqua, Elk, Greenwood, Montgomery, Wilson, Woodson | 7 hr |
| Nov 10, 5:29 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Atchison, Coffey, Douglas, Franklin, Jefferson and 8 more | 2 hr |
| Nov 10, 3:46 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Harrison, Mercer | 119 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.