Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1936

November 10, 202114 counties in Iowa; Harrison County, Mercer County, Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 10, 2021, 3:46 PM CST for 14 counties in Iowa; Harrison County, Mercer County, Missouri. It was in force for 119 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 10, 2021, 3:46 PM CST (21:46 UTC)
Expired
Nov 10, 2021, 5:45 PM CST
In force
119 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 546

Counties Boone County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Madison County, IA, Marion County, IA, Polk County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Story County, IA, Union County, IA, Warren County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Harrison County, MO, Mercer County, MO

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 215 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2021-11-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2021-11-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 133 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
684 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
133 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
182 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

273 
ACUS11 KWNS 102146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102146 
IAZ000-MOZ000-102345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1936
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

Areas affected...northwestern Missouri and south-central Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546...

Valid 102146Z - 102345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts remain possible this afternoon, but a
downstream Watch is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms that was previously surface-based and
producing  locally strong to damaging wind gusts continues advancing
northeastward at over 40 knots into a less favorable environment
where lower/middle 50s dewpoints are resulting in only weak
instability (MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg). While somewhat favorable
deep-layer shear of 30 to 40 knots continues to support modest
organization of the line and the potential for strong/damaging wind
gusts, the increasingly stable boundary-layer conditions should
continue to limit the severe threat with northeastward extent.
Therefore, a downstream Watch is not currently anticipated.

..Weinman/Hart.. 11/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   41429448 40699433 40219391 40299352 41489271 42049306
            42079394 41429448

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 10, 1:55 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Decatur, Ringgold, Taylor, Union6 hr
Nov 10, 10:53 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Holt2 hr
Nov 10, 5:29 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBates, Buchanan, Caldwell, Cass, Clay, Clinton and 10 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.