Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1838
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 12, 2021, 2:29 PM CDT for 6 counties in Kansas; Beaver County, Ellis County, Harper County, Oklahoma; Lipscomb County, Texas. It was in force for 31 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 12, 2021, 2:29 PM CDT (19:29 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 12, 2021, 3:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 31 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Outlook upgrade
Counties Clark County, KS, Finney County, KS, Gray County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Meade County, KS, Seward County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Harper County, OK, Lipscomb County, TX
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 90 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1890 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 53 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 276 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 277 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
750
ACUS11 KWNS 121930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121929
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-122000-
Mesoscale Discussion 1838
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021
Areas affected...Portions of southwest Kansas into northwest
Oklahoma and far northeast Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Outlook upgrade
Valid 121929Z - 122000Z
SUMMARY...An upgrade to Category 4/Moderate risk will be introduced
in the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook to reflect a greater risk for
strong tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution/convection allowing model
guidance consensus has been generally trending upward in the
intensity and longevity of deep, moist convection over portions of
the southern High Plains. Potential exists for multiple
discrete/semi-discrete supercells to develop ahead of a Pacific
front late this afternoon/evening. These storms are expected to
progress eastward into an ambient environment characterized by very
strong low-level shear, resulting in large, curved hodographs and
effective SRH values exceeding 400 m2/s2, especially across portions
of southwest KS/northwest OK/far northeast TX Panhandle. Here,
potential exists for at least a few intense, cyclical tornadic
supercells to develop, and a long-tracked tornado or two cannot be
ruled out. As such, portions of the central Plains will be upgraded
to Category 4/Moderate risk in the upcoming 20Z Day 1 Convective
Outlook.
..Squitieri/Grams.. 10/12/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 37820131 38210130 38260110 38130068 37789998 37409977
36969957 36579950 36309955 36119968 35969986 35850027
35900047 36520078 37820131SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 3:08 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Finney, Grant, Gray, Greeley, Hamilton and 14 more | 97 min |
| Oct 12, 3:46 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Finney, Gove, Graham, Grant and 20 more | 7 hr |
| Oct 12, 6:22 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Finney, Grant, Greeley, Hamilton, Haskell and 7 more | 83 min |
| Oct 12, 3:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beckham, Ellis, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Roger Mills | 3 hr |
| Oct 12, 5:34 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche and 18 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.