Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1841
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 12, 2021, 5:22 PM MDT for Phillips County, Sedgwick County, Yuma County, Colorado; 13 counties in Kansas; Chase County, Dundy County, Nebraska. It was in force for 83 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 12, 2021, 5:22 PM MDT (23:22 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 12, 2021, 6:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 83 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Tornado watch 522
Counties Phillips County, CO, Sedgwick County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Finney County, KS, Grant County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Logan County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Chase County, NE, Dundy County, NE
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 7 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 135 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1285 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 56 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 170 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 335 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
826
ACUS11 KWNS 122323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122322
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-130045-
Mesoscale Discussion 1841
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021
Areas affected...eastern Colorado through southwest Nebraska and
western Kansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 522...
Valid 122322Z - 130045Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 522 continues.
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to continue a gradual increase in
intensity next couple hours from northeast CO through southwest NE
and western KS. All severe hazards are possible including tornadoes,
large hail and damaging wind.
DISCUSSION...Early this evening a Pacific cold front is in the
process of overtaking the dryline across eastern CO. A warm front
extends from a surface low in northeast CO, southeast through
western KS. The warm sector is fairly narrow through western KS into
northeast CO, but dewpoints will continue to rise through the 50s F
along the strengthening southerly low-level jet. The VWP data
already indicate 40+ kt southeasterly winds at 1 km. Scattered
storms are developing across western KS along the warm conveyor belt
as well as along the front in northeast CO within a corridor of up
to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. The boundary layer should become more favorable
for tornadoes this evening as dewpoints continue to increase. Large
low-level hodographs and 50+ kt effective bulk shear will support
supercells with low-level mesocyclones. As corridor of deeper ascent
along the cold front begins to overtake greater low-level moisture,
storms should eventually evolve into lines later this evening.
..Dial.. 10/12/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 40760181 38540060 37480085 37350163 38630209 40580283
41050258 40760181SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2:08 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Phillips, Sedgwick, Yuma | 97 min |
| Oct 12, 2:46 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Baca, Cheyenne, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Phillips, Prowers and 2 more | 7 hr |
| Oct 12, 1:29 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Finney, Gray, Haskell, Meade, Seward | 31 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.