Mesoscale Discussion 1615

Issued

Aug 26, 2021, 10:45 PM CDT (03:45 UTC)

Expired

Aug 27, 2021, 12:45 AM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch possible

Chance of a watch

40%

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 184 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

022 
ACUS11 KWNS 270346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270345 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-270545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1615
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Areas affected...portions of southern MN and northern IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 270345Z - 270545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms producing locally
strong gusts and hail are possible into the early overnight period
across parts of southern MN into northern IA.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered convection has developed across
far southern MN into far northern IA late this evening. This
activity is to the north of a west-to-east oriented stationary
surface boundary extending across northern IA. This activity has
intensified recently as warm advection increases across the region
as a southerly low level jet has strengthened over the mid-MO valley
vicinity. Strong inhibition exists, especially north of the
boundary, but moderate instability amid steep midlevel lapse rates
and effective shear greater than 35 kt is aiding in organized
clusters. Hail and locally strong gusts could accompany this
activity into the early overnight period. However, the elevated
nature of convection may temper the overall severe threat as
convection shifts northeast into a somewhat less favorable
environment. While a severe thunderstorm watch does not appear
imminent at this time, convective trends are being monitored, both
with activity across northern IA as well as further west across
northeast NE/southeast SD. If better organized clusters develop, a
watch could become necessary.

..Leitman/Bunting.. 08/27/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   44159610 44259541 44179345 44029257 43759202 43259193
            42779202 42539265 42339426 42219599 42169667 42689678
            44069644 44159610

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.