Mesoscale Discussion 1412

Issued

Aug 1, 2021, 11:51 AM EDT (15:51 UTC)

Expired

Aug 1, 2021, 1:45 PM EDT

In force

114 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch likely

Chance of a watch

80%

Counties Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Greene County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Wake County, NC, Washington County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 408Aug 1, 12:35 PM EDT

128 
ACUS11 KWNS 011552
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011551 
NCZ000-011745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1412
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021

Areas affected...Central/Eastern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 011551Z - 011745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected this
afternoon across central and eastern NC. Primary threat with these
storms will be damaging wind gusts, but isolated hail and a tornado
or two may also occur. Given these threats a watch will likely be
needed across portions of central and eastern NC.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over central NC
(about 20-25 miles southwest of RDU). A warm front extends
northeastward from this low (roughly along the 80 deg F isotherm),
while a cold front extends back west-southwestward. Surface wind and
pressure observations also suggest that a modest pre-frontal trough
extends southwest from the low, back into central SC. The area of NC
ahead of the surface low and pre-frontal trough is characterized by
temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid 70s. Based on
recent mesoanalysis and modified RAP forecast sounding, any
remaining convective inhibition is minimal, with moderate buoyancy
in place. 

Cumulus field in the immediate vicinity of the surface has been
deepening over the past hour, and given the air mass destabilization
and mesoscale ascent attendant to the surface low, convective
initiation will likely occur soon. Farther east across the remainder
of eastern NC, skies are currently clear, but thunderstorms are
still expected this afternoon as storms that develop over central NC
move into the region and/or in-situ development occurs within the
destabilized warm sector. Primary severe threat is damaging wind
gusts. However, tornadoes are still possible, particularly if
surface winds retain more of a southerly component into the
afternoon. A tornado or two could also occur near the warm front (as
discussed in MCD #1411). Isolated hail is also possible. Given these
threats a watch will likely be needed across portions of central and
eastern NC.

..Mosier/Grams.. 08/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   35527914 35827860 36097768 36157690 36177663 35957627
            35597641 35227702 34877788 34707862 34767945 35087955
            35247941 35527914

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.