Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1410
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 1, 2021, 6:29 AM EDT for 15 counties in North Carolina; 12 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 91 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 1, 2021, 6:29 AM EDT (10:29 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 1, 2021, 8:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 91 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 27 counties
Alamance County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Amelia County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, City of Danville, VA, Halifax County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 77 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 36 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -24 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1676 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 46 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 119 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
133
ACUS11 KWNS 011029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011029
VAZ000-NCZ000-011200-
Mesoscale Discussion 1410
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021
Areas affected...portions of south-central VA and north-central NC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011029Z - 011200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated small hail and gusty winds are possible with
stronger thunderstorms this morning. A watch is not expected at this
time.
DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing this morning in the vicinity
of a surface trough along the NC/VA Piedmont. Instability remains
modest across the region given poor midlevel lapse rates and time of
day. Furthermore, boundary-layer inhibition is likely resulting in
elevated convection. Nevertheless, effective-shear magnitudes around
30-40 kt have resulted in some semi-organized storm structures.
Vertically veering wind profiles and elongated hodographs suggests
some potential for briefly organized cells, but a lack of stronger
instability/lapse rates will limit overall severe potential over the
next few hours, with possibly some small hail and/or gusty winds
accompany the strongest cells.
..Leitman/Edwards.. 08/01/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...
LAT...LON 36198018 36967947 37297909 37397875 37457792 37207765
36637786 35977836 35757866 35657943 35687996 35798031
35938047 36198018SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 10:54 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Gates, Hertford and 4 more | 96 min |
| Aug 1, 11:51 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Chowan, Cumberland, Duplin, Edgecombe and 14 more | 114 min |
| Aug 1, 12:37 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Beaufort, Bladen, Brunswick, Carteret, Chatham, Columbus and 31 more | 7 hr |
| Aug 1, 2:53 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anson, Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Chatham, Columbus and 31 more | 97 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.