Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1290

July 14, 20215 counties in Illinois; 8 counties in Iowa; 10 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 14, 2021, 9:15 PM CDT for 5 counties in Illinois; 8 counties in Iowa; 10 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 90 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 14, 2021, 9:15 PM CDT (02:15 UTC)
Expired
Jul 14, 2021, 10:45 PM CDT
In force
90 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 379
All 23 counties

Allamakee County, IA, Clayton County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Linn County, IA, Carroll County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, Ogle County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Winnebago County, IL, Columbia County, WI, Crawford County, WI, Dane County, WI, Grant County, WI, Green County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Richland County, WI, Rock County, WI, Sauk County, WI

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 2.3 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2021-07-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2569 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2021-07-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 253 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2569 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
832 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
253 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
346 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
3.2
Supercell composite
23.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

900 
ACUS11 KWNS 150215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150215 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-150345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

Areas affected...Eastern IA...Southern WI...Northwest IL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...

Valid 150215Z - 150345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will gradually shift southeast across ww379
this evening.

DISCUSSION...LLJ has strengthened considerably across eastern IA
into southeastern WI this evening, where 40kt is currently observed
at 1km AGL. This has aided the northward advancement of the surface
front  which is now draped from Lake County IL-north of RYV-north of
MSN. Overall, convective trends have become more multi-clustered
with an expanding corridor of thunderstorms extending
southwest-northeast along the LLJ axis. A few supercells remain
along the southwestern flank of this activity, especially just north
of Cedar Rapids. This southern activity remains concentrated in the
greater buoyancy air mass, and latest diagnostic data suggests the
immediate downstream environment remains favorable for surface-based
supercells (temperatures holding near 80F at DVN). Latest trends
suggest the SW/NE-oriented band of storms will gradually sag
southeast across the remainder of ww379 later this evening,
eventually spreading across the remainder of northern IL later
tonight as LLJ translates downstream. Greatest short-term severe
threat appears to be in the CID-DBQ corridor where surface-based
supercells continue.

..Darrow.. 07/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   41749171 43469172 43628902 41908901 41749171

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 14, 11:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Carroll, DeKalb, Henry, Lee, McHenry and 6 more58 min
Jul 14, 11:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBoone, Bureau, DeKalb, Grundy, Henry, Kane and 7 more3 hr
Jul 15, 2:14 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bureau, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane and 12 more61 min
Jul 15, 1:39 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Cass, Champaign, Christian, Coles, DeWitt and 24 more2 hr
Jul 14, 8:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Black Hawk, Buchanan, Fayette, Grundy, Jasper and 5 more25 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.