Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1289

July 14, 202111 counties in Iowa

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 14, 2021, 8:35 PM CDT for 11 counties in Iowa. It was in force for 25 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 14, 2021, 8:35 PM CDT (01:35 UTC)
Expired
Jul 14, 2021, 9:00 PM CDT
In force
25 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 378

Counties Benton County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Linn County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Polk County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 178 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2021-07-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2569 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2021-07-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 253 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2569 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
832 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
253 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
346 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
3.2
Supercell composite
23.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

988 
ACUS11 KWNS 150135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150135 
IAZ000-150200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1289
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0835 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

Areas affected...Central and east-central Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 378...

Valid 150135Z - 150200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 378 continues.

SUMMARY...A storm or two may linger in southeastern portions of WW
378 beyond 9 PM CDT. Local extensions in time of the watch will
likely be needed as the environment will remain favorable for
tornadoes for another few hours.

DISCUSSION...While the storm mode has trended less discrete over the
last two hours, several embedded supercells have produced observed
tornadoes during that time. The environment just ahead of this
activity still remains favorable for tornadoes per the 00Z DVN
sounding and KDVN VWP. With the increase in the low-level jet this
evening, the environment will likely support tornadoes for a few
more hours. Given that some activity may linger beyond 9 PM CDT,
some local extensions in time of WW 378 will likely be needed.

..Wendt.. 07/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   41709407 42319326 42749236 42899184 42849159 42659145
            42299145 41869158 41749182 41679287 41649384 41709407

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 14, 9:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Clayton, Clinton, Delaware, Dubuque, Jackson and 2 more90 min
Jul 14, 11:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClinton, Muscatine, Scott58 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.