Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1288

July 14, 202135 counties in Iowa

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 14, 2021, 5:47 PM CDT for 35 counties in Iowa. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 14, 2021, 5:47 PM CDT (22:47 UTC)
Expired
Jul 14, 2021, 7:45 PM CDT
In force
118 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 378
All 35 counties

Audubon County, IA, Benton County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Boone County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Butler County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cerro Gordo County, IA, Chickasaw County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Floyd County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Greene County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hancock County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Monona County, IA, Polk County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Sac County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Webster County, IA, Wright County, IA

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 256 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2021-07-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 967 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2021-07-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 35 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
967 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-125 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1201 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
35 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-7 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

287 
ACUS11 KWNS 142247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142247 
IAZ000-NEZ000-150045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1288
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

Areas affected...Central into northeast Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 378...

Valid 142247Z - 150045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 378 continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for tornadoes will be focused in northeast
Iowa and potential parts of east-central Iowa. Farther west, veered
surface flow will limit tornado potential, though damaging winds and
perhaps isolated hail remain a possibility.

DISCUSSION...The remaining area of greatest concern for a continued
tornado threat exists in northeastern Iowa. A confirmed tornado was
located in Bremer County east of Waverly. This storm has remained
discrete and will likely be the focus for tornadic potential over
the next hour or two. To its southwest, another cluster of
supercells has recently grown upscale. While the storm mode would
indicate a lower tornado threat, temperatures downstream of these
storms have continued to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s F.
Surface winds remain backed and will continue to support enhanced
low-level SRH and potential for tornadoes.

To the west of I-35, surface winds have veered considerably and are
now west to west-southwesterly. Though storms have developed along
the cold front, these storms are more of a damaging wind gusts and
perhaps isolated large hail threat. The tornado threat in these
areas is relatively lower.

..Wendt.. 07/14/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   41989622 42649484 43239344 43339272 43249210 43049164
            42629166 42139172 41559217 41489499 41499588 41989622

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 14, 7:02 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Buchanan and 43 more2 hr
Jul 14, 8:54 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllamakee, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan, Butler, Cerro Gordo and 13 more5 hr
Jul 14, 11:45 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Clayton, Dubuque, Jackson, Jones2 hr
Jul 14, 1:40 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudubon, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Buena Vista, Butler and 38 more2 hr
Jul 14, 2:35 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAudubon, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Buchanan and 41 more8 hr
Jul 14, 4:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Butler, Calhoun, Franklin, Greene, Grundy and 5 more58 min
Jul 14, 5:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Clayton, Delaware, Dubuque, Jackson, Jones63 min
Jul 14, 6:13 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAllamakee, Cedar, Clayton, Clinton, Delaware, Dubuque and 7 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.