Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1207

July 8, 202122 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 8, 2021, 8:54 PM CDT for 22 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 8, 2021, 8:54 PM CDT (01:54 UTC)
Expired
Jul 8, 2021, 11:00 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 354
All 22 counties

Aurora County, SD, Beadle County, SD, Brule County, SD, Buffalo County, SD, Campbell County, SD, Corson County, SD, Davison County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Hand County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Hyde County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Lyman County, SD, Potter County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Spink County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Sully County, SD, Walworth County, SD, Ziebach County, SD

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 111 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2021-07-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 82 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2021-07-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 133 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
82 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-125 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
996 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
133 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
211 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

674 
ACUS11 KWNS 090155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090154 
SDZ000-090400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1207
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0854 PM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021

Areas affected...Central and Southeast South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 354...

Valid 090154Z - 090400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 354
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across central and
southeastern South Dakota over the next few hours. Large hail and
wind damage will be possible with the stronger cells. The area
affected will be to the east of WW 354, where a new watch will
likely be needed later this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest high resolution radar from Bismark, North
Dakota shows a small cluster of severe thunderstorms centered about
100 statute miles to the west of Mobridge, South Dakota. These
storms are expected to move along the far eastern edge of WW 354.
Additional thunderstorms will develop to the east of WW 354 in parts
of central South Dakota over the next hour. According to the RAP,
the environment is characterized to have moderate instability and
strong deep-layer shear. 0-6 km shear is estimated to be as strong
as 60 kt in some areas. In addition, a band of large-scale ascent
will approach from the west, which combined with increasing lift
associated with a strengthening low-level jet, will result in
scattered thunderstorm development across central and southeastern
South Dakota later this evening. The stronger cells will likely have
a threat for large hail and wind damage. Although the convective
cluster will become elevated, it may affect areas to the east of the
Missouri River, where a new weather watch will likely be needed.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 07/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON   44869775 43839768 43289859 44340107 44790181 45350184
            45790158 45850011 44869775

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 8, 7:08 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBennett, Haakon, Jackson, Meade, Oglala Lakota, Pennington and 2 more97 min
Jul 8, 9:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAurora, Beadle, Bon Homme, Brule, Buffalo, Charles Mix and 24 more5 hr
Jul 9, 2:41 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAurora, Beadle, Bon Homme, Brule, Buffalo, Charles Mix and 27 more34 min
Jul 9, 6:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCuster, Fall River, Lawrence, Oglala Lakota, Pennington4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.