Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1206

July 8, 20218 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 8, 2021, 6:08 PM MDT for 8 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 97 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 8, 2021, 6:08 PM MDT (00:08 UTC)
Expired
Jul 8, 2021, 7:45 PM MDT
In force
97 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 354

Counties Bennett County, SD, Haakon County, SD, Jackson County, SD, Meade County, SD, Oglala Lakota County, SD, Pennington County, SD, Perkins County, SD, Ziebach County, SD

The radar

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KUNR), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 72 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Rapid City, SD at 00:00Z on 2021-07-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1357 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Rapid City, SD at 00:00Z on 2021-07-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 111 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1357 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-133 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2075 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
73 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
111 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
272 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
3.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

812 
ACUS11 KWNS 090008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090008 
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-090145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 PM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021

Areas affected...Southwestern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 354...

Valid 090008Z - 090145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 354
continues.

SUMMARY...Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible with a supercell moving southeastward across western South
Dakota over the next couple of hours. Wind driven hail and damaging
wind gusts exceeding 70 knots will also be possible.

DISCUSSION...High resolution radar from Rapid City shows a
well-developed intense supercell located about 20 statute miles to
the east of Rapid City. Another supercell is located in far
southwestern North Dakota. The environment ahead of the storms is
characterized by moderate instability with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg,
strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates. The 00Z
sounding from Rapid City shows 0-6 km near 75 kt with 700-500 mb
lapse rate of 8.0 C/km. This will continue to support intense
supercell development over the next couple of hours. Hailstones of
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the
strongest part of each storm. Wind driven hail and wind gusts
exceeding 70 knots will also be possible. These two storms are
expected to produce swaths of large hail and wind damage, oriented
to the southeast across parts of western South Dakota.

..Broyles/Thompson/Smith.. 07/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   45980219 45670186 45070145 44270123 42930133 42760158
            42720191 42920247 43400289 44610321 45420329 45880312
            45950284 45980219

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 8, 7:54 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAurora, Beadle, Brule, Buffalo, Campbell, Corson and 16 more2 hr
Jul 8, 8:33 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAurora, Beadle, Bon Homme, Brule, Buffalo, Charles Mix and 24 more5 hr
Jul 9, 1:41 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAurora, Beadle, Bon Homme, Brule, Buffalo, Charles Mix and 27 more34 min
Jul 9, 5:33 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCuster, Fall River, Lawrence, Oglala Lakota, Pennington4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.