Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1147
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 4, 2021, 1:36 PM MDT for 4 states. It was in force for 114 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 4, 2021, 1:36 PM MDT (19:36 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 4, 2021, 3:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 114 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 25 counties
Huerfano County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Colfax County, NM, Curry County, NM, Harding County, NM, Mora County, NM, Quay County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Moore County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Swisher County, TX
The radar
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 149 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 178 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 997 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -55 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 825 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 97 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 133 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.5
- Supercell composite
- 3.3
The text
As transmitted.
377
ACUS11 KWNS 041936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041936
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-042130-
Mesoscale Discussion 1147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sun Jul 04 2021
Areas affected...northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado into
the Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 041936Z - 042130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase over the Sangre De Cristo
mountains, and within a surface trough extending east into the
Panhandles. Some of the storms may produce large hail and locally
damaging gusts.
DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows the remnants of an MCV over
western OK and the TX Panhandle where a pockets of cooler
temperatures remain. Substantial CU is noted on satellite imagery
west of this feature and into northeast NM where temperatures
continue to warm. Meanwhile, convection is slow building over the
Sangre De Cristo mountains.
Continued heating and ample moisture will support scattered strong
to severe storms. Weak northwest flow aloft atop the surface
southerlies will elongate hodographs favorably for a few long-lived
cells. Supercells will be possible for cells moving due-south or
southwestward, maximizing the meager SRH.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/04/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35410553 35870531 36330515 36930490 37750507 37800462
37370325 37010219 36730161 36410118 35740097 34770112
34430164 34340269 34480357 34640430 35410553SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2:37 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baca, Bent, Crowley, El Paso, Huerfano, Kiowa and 4 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 4, 3:01 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cheyenne | 7 hr |
| Jul 4, 5:29 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Curry | 91 min |
| Jul 4, 5:56 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Texas | 94 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.