Mesoscale Discussion 1149

Issued

Jul 4, 2021, 5:29 PM MDT (23:29 UTC)

Expired

Jul 4, 2021, 7:00 PM MDT

In force

91 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 333

Counties Curry County, NM, Deaf Smith County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

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831 
ACUS11 KWNS 042329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042329 
TXZ000-NMZ000-050100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CDT Sun Jul 04 2021

Areas affected...Northern and central New Mexico/west Texas border
vicinity

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333...

Valid 042329Z - 050100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated supercell may transition to an upscale growing
storm cluster near the Texas/New Mexico border area, and approach
the Clovis vicinity by 8-10 PM, accompanied by continuing potential
for severe hail and increasing risk for severe surface gusts.

DISCUSSION...Scattered intense thunderstorm activity, including
isolated supercells, is ongoing south through east-southeast of the
Raton Mesa vicinity.  This is within an environment with
thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates,
and a relatively moist, well mixed boundary layer characterized by
large CAPE.  Although deep-layer northwesterly mean ambient flow is
rather weak (on the order of 15 kt), a belt of 20+ kt
north-northwesterly flow, to the west/southwest of a weak mid-level
trough digging through the central Great Plains, is contributing to
strong deep-layer shear.  This environment should remain supportive
of at least isolated supercell development into the 01-03Z time
frame, with a tendency for activity to continue to propagate
south-southwestward.

It is possible that the interface of the more strongly heated/
deeply mixed boundary-layer air and the deeper, moist boundary-
layer air may become the focus for intensifying and upscale growing
convection by early evening.  This extends from just to the west of
Dalhart, southward near the Texas/New Mexico border area, into the
Clovis, NM vicinity.  If this occurs, an organizing cluster of
storms with increasing potential to produce strong surface gusts may
eventually evolve.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35930297 35810263 35390240 34820242 34470258 34200286
            34260349 34710358 35600330 35930297

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.