Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1105

June 25, 202136 counties in Illinois; 25 counties in Indiana; 8 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 25, 2021, 10:31 PM CDT for 36 counties in Illinois; 25 counties in Indiana; 8 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 59 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 25, 2021, 10:31 PM CDT (03:31 UTC)
Expired
Jun 25, 2021, 11:30 PM CDT
In force
59 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 318...319
All 69 counties

Bond County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Cass County, IL, Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Coles County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Ford County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Greene County, IL, Iroquois County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Kankakee County, IL, Livingston County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Mason County, IL, McLean County, IL, Menard County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Pike County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Benton County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, Clinton County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fountain County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Howard County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaPorte County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Newton County, IN, Parke County, IN, Porter County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Starke County, IN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Vermillion County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Warren County, IN, White County, IN, City of Saint Louis, MO, Crawford County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Warren County, MO

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 3.5 hours before the alert went out and 57 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2021-06-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1254 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2021-06-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 105 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1254 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-26 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
910 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
105 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
204 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.7
Supercell composite
6.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

050 
ACUS11 KWNS 260331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260331 
INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-260430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Areas affected...east-central Missouri northeast to northern Indiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 318...319...

Valid 260331Z - 260430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 318, 319
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues to diminish across the watch
areas. A brief window of strong wind potential may remain across
eastern Illinois, but the overall convective trends suggest a new
watch likely will not be needed.

DISCUSSION...Overall thunderstorm severity continues to wane across
the watch areas as evidenced by weakening of MESH cores and warming
cloud tops. Additionally, given the loss of diurnal heating, low
level stability should slowly increase overnight, reducing the
potential for organized, severe thunderstorm outflows and brief
tornadoes. However, a recent measured wind gust of 59 knots at
Decatur, IL, reiterates that the wind potential, albeit low, does
remain. Current thinking is that the overall isolated nature of the
threat should preclude the need for a new watch, although a local
extension in time of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 318 may be needed if
the wind potential does not diminish as quickly as expected.

..Marsh.. 06/26/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...

LAT...LON   38359166 40709030 41788609 41628560 40668561 39708705
            39228862 38499034 37759124 38359166

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 25, 7:05 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCIroquois, Kankakee, Vermilion55 min
Jun 25, 8:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Champaign, Christian and 30 more86 min
Jun 26, 11:45 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Cass, Champaign, Christian, DeWitt, Ford and 21 more2 hr
Jun 26, 12:05 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCass, Champaign, Christian, Coles, Cook, Cumberland and 24 more9 hr
Jun 26, 2:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, DeWitt, Ford, Greene, Iroquois, Jersey and 8 more118 min
Jun 26, 6:08 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChampaign, Coles, Cumberland, Douglas, Edgar, Ford and 5 more67 min
Jun 26, 12:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLaPorte, Saint Joseph57 min
Jun 26, 6:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCarroll, Clinton, Fountain, Montgomery, Parke, Tippecanoe and 2 more3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.