Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
225 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure system brings thunderstorm chances today
with a cold front tonight. High pressure then prevails most of
Friday, through the weekend, and into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1152 AM Thursday...

Low pressure, evident on satellite near the lower Ohio River
Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley regions...with a slow
moving/nearly stationary frontal boundary stretched east across
southern IN/OH, with an occluded front to the south across
central KY/TN regions. Dry slot has mostly taken hold across
CWA, with breaks in the cloud cover also starting to take hold,
particularly near Ohio River vcnty and west into Kentucky. In
area to west, and across our western zones, where breaks in the
clouds have occurred, cape has been increasing, with spc
mesoanalysis page suggesting 500-1000 J/KG. In addition, an area
of convection is starting to form across eastern KY as the
atmosphere destabilizes.

Still looking at the possibility for strong to severe
storms...particularly this afternoon, as the low progresses
east/se. Mid level lapse rates will steepen across the area,
along with strong shear developing, on the order of 40 to
60kts...and already evident on spc mesoanalysis page, with the
potential for any convection to become organized. Large hail
will be a possibility, especially with low freezing levels
around 8000-9000 feet, along with the potential for strong gusty
winds to reach the surface owing to mid level dry air. A brief
weak tornado also cannot be completely ruled out. In addition,
any storms are capable of heavy downpours, and with rather wet
conditions in place, isolated water issues cannot be completely
ruled out.

The low will pull off to the east of the area late tonight and
early Friday. Gusty winds will also develop later this
afternoon, and linger into the overnight hours, keeping
temperatures from falling too much. Cooler, and dry on Friday
behind system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

The period starts off quiet and relatively cool with below
seasonable temperatures for Saturday morning with expected lows
in the low to mid 20's across the area and possible upper teens
in the mountains. Thereafter, daytime highs moderate and climb
to seasonable with lows slightly below their norm, however will
gradually climb to above seasonable by the new work week. High
pressure dominates with mainly clear skies and fair weather
going into the next period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

Models indicate a southern stream system forecast to develop
over the midwest courtesy of a broad upper level trough
forecast extend over almost the entire CONUS. Long range models
are coming into better agreement on this feature than previous
runs, however are still off on timing somewhat, therefore
lowered and delayed POPs going into Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning which led to just slight chance to chance POPs. With
models so divergent in nature decided to accept guidance
thereafter, but not before lowering some POPs and keeping them
at slight chance toward the end of this period for Thursday as
models diverge even more with timing and location on the next
developing system from the same upper level trough.

Temperatures will start out slightly above seasonable beginning
this period but will quickly experience a warming trend where
by Tuesday highs and lows should trend upwards of over 10
degrees higher than normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Thursday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are starting to develop
across much of the lowlands. Any storm is capable of brief heavy
downpours, gusty winds over 50 mph, and large hail. Expect brief
MVFR/IFR conditions with any storm/shower. Bulk of convection
will wane by 01-03Z, but sct showers will continue to be a
possibility through at least 09-12Z.

In addition, widespread MVFR and local IFR conditions will
develop across the area, particularly after 23Z, except for
across the mountains where local/areas of LIFR is expected
particularly after 04Z including at site KBKW. Gradual
improvement to VFR is expected to take hold from north to south
after 09Z.

In addition, gusty winds can be expected outside of convection.
Winds south to southwesterly will gradually veer to a more
northerly direction towards and after 00Z. Gusts up to 26 kts at
times outside of convection, particularly with passage of a
front, after 03-06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing storms and associated flight
restrictions could vary from TAFs. Low ceilings overnight may
lift to VFR quicker on Friday than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SL/JZ
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...SL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
507 AM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-190915-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
507 AM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
Some of the thunderstorms could become strong to severe and as a
result, there is a Slight Risk of severe weather in effect for nearly
the entire region. A Slight Risk of severe weather indicates that
isolated to scattered severe storms may occur. Locally damaging winds
and large hail around 1 inch in diameter will be the primary severe
weather threats, although a brief tornado may also occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
124 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

WVZ006>008-013-014-181800-
Jackson-Mason-Lincoln-Cabell-Putnam-
124 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MASON...
EASTERN CABELL...PUTNAM...NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND CENTRAL JACKSON
COUNTIES...

At 123 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Buffalo to 7 miles southeast of
Barboursville. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ripley, Winfield, Hamlin, Hurricane, Milton, Eleanor, Buffalo, Ona,
Culloden, Teays Valley, West Hamlin, Bancroft, Leon, Given,
Southside, Salt Rock, Grimms Landing, Evans and Fraziers Bottom.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 133 and 139.
 Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 23 and 42.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.

LAT...LON 3830 8229 3831 8228 3831 8229 3876 8203
      3888 8162 3840 8189 3839 8190 3837 8190
      3831 8194 3822 8227 3823 8227 3823 8229
      3825 8231 3827 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 230DEG 29KT 3860 8205 3832 8223

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
158 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

WVZ008-014-015-181830-
Jackson-Kanawha-Putnam-
158 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PUTNAM...
NORTHWESTERN KANAWHA AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 157 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Winfield to near Culloden. Movement
was east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Nitro, Winfield, St. Albans, Dunbar, Hurricane, Sissonville, Eleanor,
Poca, Cross Lanes, Teays Valley, Institute, Bancroft, Kentuck and
Liberty.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 115 and 124.
 Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 35 and 50.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.

LAT...LON 3861 8187 3868 8155 3867 8155 3839 8173
      3834 8204 3840 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 258DEG 18KT 3857 8182 3834 8204

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
209 PM EDT THU MAR 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             GRAYSON LAKE STATE PARK 38.20N 83.03W
03/18/2021  E0.70 INCH       CARTER             KY   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            STRONG WINDS ALSO OBSERVED BUT NO DAMAGE
            OBSERVED. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

WEBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 PM EDT THU MAR 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             2 W TEAYS VALLEY        38.45N 81.96W
03/18/2021  E0.25 INCH       PUTNAM             WV   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ALSO MEASURED 0.47 INCHES OF RAIN IN 20
            MINUTES.

&&

WEBB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
218 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

OHZ083-085-086-WVZ007-181900-
Jackson-Meigs-Gallia-Mason-
218 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MEIGS...
NORTHEASTERN GALLIA...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN MASON
COUNTIES...

At 217 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Rio Grande,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pomeroy, Rio Grande, Rutland, New Haven, Mason, Middleport, Syracuse,
Hartford City, Vinton, Cheshire, Adamsville, Lakin, Salem Center,
Harrisonville, Gage, Dexter, Centerpoint and Kyger.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3903 8235 3903 8232 3905 8232 3920 8210
      3919 8207 3898 8191 3877 8239 3892 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 235DEG 29KT 3889 8239

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
229 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

WVZ008-015-016-181900-
Jackson-Roane-Kanawha-
229 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN KANAWHA...
SOUTHWESTERN ROANE AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 229 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Sissonville, or
13 miles east of Winfield, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sissonville, Clendenin, Kentuck, Harmony, Walton and Gandeeville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 79 between mile markers 14 and 22.
 Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 111 and 124.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.

LAT...LON 3875 8136 3849 8129 3847 8172 3860 8174
      3860 8173 3862 8170 3865 8171
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 258DEG 20KT 3858 8163

12