Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1222 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure system brings thunderstorm chances today
with a cold front tonight. High pressure then prevails most of
Friday, through the weekend, and into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1152 AM Thursday...

Low pressure, evident on satellite near the lower Ohio River
Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley regions...with a slow
moving/nearly stationary frontal boundary stretched east across
southern IN/OH, with an occluded front to the south across
central KY/TN regions. Dry slot has mostly taken hold across
CWA, with breaks in the cloud cover also starting to take hold,
particularly near Ohio River vcnty and west into Kentucky. In
area to west, and across our western zones, where breaks in the
clouds have occurred, cape has been increasing, with spc
mesoanalysis page suggesting 500-1000 J/KG. In addition, an area
of convection is starting to form across eastern KY as the
atmosphere destabilizes.

Still looking at the possibility for strong to severe
storms...particularly this afternoon, as the low progresses
east/se. Mid level lapse rates will steepen across the area,
along with strong shear developing, on the order of 40 to
60kts...and already evident on spc mesoanalysis page, with the
potential for any convection to become organized. Large hail
will be a possibility, especially with low freezing levels
around 8000-9000 feet, along with the potential for strong gusty
winds to reach the surface owing to mid level dry air. A brief
weak tornado also cannot be completely ruled out. In addition,
any storms are capable of heavy downpours, and with rather wet
conditions in place, isolated water issues cannot be completely
ruled out.

The low will pull off to the east of the area late tonight and
early Friday. Gusty winds will also develop later this
afternoon, and linger into the overnight hours, keeping
temperatures from falling too much. Cooler, and dry on Friday
behind system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

Back edge of precip (possibly with a brief spitting of snow)
should quickly exit the area to the southeast Friday morning
with the vast majority of the daytime hours being dry. Pretty
strong pressure gradient force will remain in place through the
first half of the day before relaxing some in the afternoon.
This will result in continued cold air advection in the morning
with a biting north wind, along with temps holding steady-
state until closer to late morning. Cooler high temps will then
prevail for Friday afternoon with high temps struggling to reach
50 degrees for the lowlands.

Surface high pressure then becomes established across the CWA
for the weekend. With clear skies both weekend days/nights,
weaker wind fields, and a dry airmass in place...we should see
some pretty good diurnal thermal ranges. Cold nights with mild
afternoons.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 AM Thursday...

Surface high pressure shifts well east of the area early next
work week with warmer south flow developing in its wake. H5 s/w
ridge axis is prog to shift east/overhead on Monday with
continued dry (and warmer) conditions occurring. Gradual
moisture return is set to occur Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of
the next spring storm system. A few showers may occur by the
middle of next week, but a messy synoptic pattern and model
disagreement promotes leaning towards low POPs for now.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 635 AM Thursday...

Rain showers are pivoting through the area this morning well
ahead of a strong low pressure system across the mid Mississippi
Valley. Thus, a combination of VFR/MVFR this morning is expected with
low clouds and some occasional vsby restrictions.

Precipitation coverage should decrease somewhat late morning as
a dry slot pushes in and downslope flow may help lift ceilings
west of the mountains. As a result, there should be a period
late morning and early afternoon where VFR conditions return to
most of the area, but low clouds may linger across northern
parts of the region with possible MVFR ceilings are possible.
Otherwise, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon and evening as the aforementioned low
pressure system approaches so periods of MVFR/IFR conditions
will be possible, especially during heavier periods of
precipitation.

Any thunderstorm activity should ease by mid to late evening as
instability wanes, but widespread low clouds will move into the
area by late evening in the wake of a cold front. This will
result in widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight, but some VFR
conditions may return for northern terminals by the end of the
period as drier air builds in. It will also become gusty
overnight in the wake of a cold frontal passage with northerly
gusts of 20-25 kts possible.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing storms and associated flight
restrictions could vary from TAFs.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    M    H    M    H    H    L    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SL/JZ
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...RG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
507 AM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-190915-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
507 AM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
Some of the thunderstorms could become strong to severe and as a
result, there is a Slight Risk of severe weather in effect for nearly
the entire region. A Slight Risk of severe weather indicates that
isolated to scattered severe storms may occur. Locally damaging winds
and large hail around 1 inch in diameter will be the primary severe
weather threats, although a brief tornado may also occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1234 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

KYZ105-WVZ005-006-013-014-181715-
Lawrence-Lincoln-Wayne-Cabell-Putnam-
1234 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE...
CABELL...SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM...NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND CENTRAL WAYNE
COUNTIES...

At 1233 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Fort Gay, or
over Louisa, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Louisa, Wayne, Hamlin, Beech Fork State Park, Yatesville Lake State
Park, Hurricane, Barboursville, Milton, Fort Gay, Ona, Culloden, East
Lynn Lake, Centerville, West Hamlin, Lavalette, Branchland, Salt
Rock, Pea Ridge, Fallsburg and East Lynn.

This includes Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 17
and 32.

LAT...LON 3817 8271 3854 8214 3832 8194 3802 8258
TIME...MOT...LOC 1633Z 234DEG 33KT 3814 8257

JP