Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
329 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)...

Elevated convection will continue to pose a threat of heavy
rain/flooding across the northern portions of our area over the next
few hours. Between 08-13Z, the line of storms across Middle TN is
expected to track across our area, with damaging winds being the
main severe threat. Additional heavy rainfall from this line will
further exacerbate ongoing flooding in the northern Plateau and
northern Valley counties. The surface warm front appears to be
located close to CHA at the moment, with a slight northward push
possible before the line arrives. The primary area of concern with
this line will be south of I-40 where convection could become
surface-based, giving a higher chance of damaging wind gusts and the
potential for quick-forming tornadoes along the QLCS.

The QLCS is expected to move a little faster than what most of the
models project, and should be exiting our area in the 13-15Z time
frame. Some showers may linger behind it until the 850 mb
front/trough axis pushes through in the early afternoon. Clouds
should clear out in the evening with the midlevel trough passage.
This clearing along with building high pressure allowing winds to
drop off to nearly calm after midnight will result in low temps
tonight in the 30s for most of the Valley, and 20s in the mountains.
The counties that are in the active frost/freeze program - from
Union-Grainger-Hamblen counties south - are expected to have lows in
the 36-39 range. This is just above the borderline for a second
period Frost Advisory, so will hold off on issuing one with this
package.

The Flash Flood Watch will be continued unchanged, although it will
likely be able to be ended earlier than 00Z. The Wind Advisory
appears on track as gusts in the mountains have been in the 40s.
This may also be able to be canceled before the 18Z end time.

DGS

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)...

High pressure continues to build southeast behind cold front Monday
for a quiet weather day and slightly below normal temperatures in
the upper 50s to mid 60s. Monday night another mostly clear night
but southerly flow will start returning as high pressure shifts east
of the Appalachians. Lows will rebound into the upper 30s to mid
40s. Tuesday southerly flow will warm temperatures another 10
degrees with increasing clouds but rain holding off during the day.
Tuesday night and Wednesday another system approaches as new upper
trough digs into the Rockies and moves into the Plains and western
Great Lakes on Wednesday. Cold front will move into the forecast
area Wednesday and should stop temperatures from rising more than
about 10 degrees from mild morning lows as skies will be cloudy
and showers abundant. Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible
Wednesday along and ahead of the front.

Much colder airmass will move in behind the front Wednesday night
and Thursday with some snow showers on the leading edge of a
secondary cold front late Wednesday night and early Thursday. This
system will be short lived so no significant accumulation
expected. Skies expected to clear by Thursday morning with strong
cold air advection dropping temperatures down into the upper 20s
by early morning across northern sections and around freezing to
mid 30s central and southern areas. The cold air advection
continues Thursday and temperatures will only rebound into the 40s
to lower 50s. Higher elevations will stay in the 30s. Thursday
night a significant freeze possible over all but extreme southern
valley near Chattanooga. May need to issue freeze products for
Thursday night. Slow warming trend Friday and Saturday. Highs
Friday mid 40s to mid 50s and then Saturday much warmer in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

TD

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

For the next few hours, VFR conditions are expected to continue at
CHA and TYS. TRI is expected to be affected by a cluster of storms
that will skirt just NW of the airport, with VCTS and gusty NW
winds expected. A line of storms is expected to move east across
the area between 10-14Z. This line will bring TS, gusty winds, and
IFR conditions at all TAF sites. Behind the line, winds will shift
to the W and remain gusty for most of the day, with broken VFR
cigs. Clearing skies and lighter winds should arrive around
22-00Z.

DGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             67  40  64  46  70 / 100   0   0  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  64  35  60  40  71 / 100   0   0  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       64  37  61  41  70 / 100   0   0  10  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  34  60  36  70 / 100  10   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 9 AM EDT this morning for Cherokee-Clay.

     Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this
     evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flash Flood Watch until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
     Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-
     Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-
     Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-
     Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-
     Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest
     Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
     Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-
     Unicoi-Union-Washington-West Polk.

     Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon
     through this evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
     East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-
     Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-
     North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest
     Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott-
     Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-
     Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-
     Washington-West Polk.

     Wind Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Flash Flood Watch until 9 AM EDT this morning for Lee-Russell-
     Scott-Washington-Wise.

     Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this
     evening for Lee-Russell-Scott-Washington-Wise.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
634 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

TNZ015-016-038>042-070-073-074-281115-
Cocke Smoky Mountains TN-Jefferson TN-Hamblen TN-Northwest Greene TN-
Hancock TN-Northwest Cocke TN-Sevier Smoky Mountains TN-Grainger TN-
North Sevier TN-Hawkins TN-
634 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAWKINS...HANCOCK...JEFFERSON...
WESTERN COCKE...NORTHWESTERN GREENE...SEVIER...GRAINGER AND HAMBLEN
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM EDT...

At 633 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles west of Rutledge to 7 miles south of
Maryville. Movement was northeast at 70 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Morristown, Sevierville, Jefferson City, Newport, Rogersville,
Gatlinburg, Dandridge, Sneedville, Rutledge and Pigeon Forge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 AM EDT for
east Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3569 8366 3571 8370 3589 8379 3597 8365
      3610 8371 3608 8367 3609 8367 3616 8373
      3633 8366 3637 8345 3643 8337 3653 8339
      3660 8322 3659 8281 3572 8321 3572 8325
      3566 8330 3566 8335 3557 8349 3557 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 1033Z 244DEG 60KT 3630 8363 3564 8393

Moulton