Areal Flood Warning 11, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
134 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The late afternoon and evening has been steady and busy. Flooding
remains the biggest threat, however, a few storms have produced
some large hail in some areas. The latest HRRR and RAP are in good
agreement on timing with the next round of strong storms. That
appears to be between 5 AM ET to 11 AM...moving from west to east
fairly rapidly. We expect strong winds, potentially damaging winds
along the edge of the stronger storms. On top of that will be the
additional heavy rainfall contributing to additional flooding.

No major changes to the ongoing forecast were needed.

AC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

For the next few hours, VFR conditions are expected to continue at
CHA and TYS. TRI is expected to be affected by a cluster of storms
that will skirt just NW of the airport, with VCTS and gusty NW
winds expected. A line of storms is expected to move east across
the area between 10-14Z. This line will bring TS, gusty winds, and
IFR conditions at all TAF sites. Behind the line, winds will shift
to the W and remain gusty for most of the day, with broken VFR
cigs. Clearing skies and lighter winds should arrive around
22-00Z.

DGS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 348 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021/
SHORT TERM (Today through Tomorrow)...

Active weather will continue for the next 18-24 hours. Morning
convection that was mainly elevated brought numerous storms with
large hail and a few strong wind reports. That stuff has now moved
east of the Appalachian Mountains. The next area of concern will be
looking back across most of southern Tennessee. Warm front has
nudged into the southern parts of Tennessee and this could act to
focus the severe threat along and south of the front for another
round of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Hard to pinpoint where the front is based on surface obs due to them
also being influenced by the storms out there, but it's likely just
north of Chattanooga and definitely south of Knoxville as of this
writing. The big question for eastern Tennessee will be if
convection gets initiated in southeast Tennessee near the front.
Several CAMs seem to be hinting that the best mid/upper level
forcing will remain across middle and western Tennessee. Combine
this with the fact that the atmosphere in southeast TN got worked
over with the morning convection, and they haven't really broken up
the clouds much today, so think the atmosphere really hasn't had an
opportunity to destabilize today (which is maybe what happened with
the severe event about week ago). So unfortunately confidence on
storms firing across southeast Tennessee is low at this time.
Mesoscale analysis indicates that the atmosphere well south of the
front (more in AL/GA) is primed for some strong storms, but chances
for convective initiation is lower there due to lack of forcing. So
east Tennessee is kind of right on the edge of the better atmosphere
and forcing to see strong to severe storms this afternoon. So can't
let your guard down just yet as any storms moving in from Middle TN
and northern AL could remain or become severe this afternoon if
they're able to maintain.

As we move into tonight expect storms across middle TN to move into
northeast TN and southwest VA. The timing of these storms isn't
great to see severe thunderstorms, especially if they remain north
of the front. But even with elevated storms the threat for hail and
gusty winds will remain. The other threat which will impact the most
people will be the potential for flooding to get re-aggravated again
with any storms overnight. Flash Flood Watch has been expanded
across the entire forecast area and will remain that way into
tomorrow. Even though the rain will most likely be gone by morning
tomorrow the watch is out until the evening just to give people a
heads up since flood waters can take a while to recede.

Overnight the next best chance for severe weather will approach as
the cold front pushes through the area. A line of thunderstorms is
expected along the entire front from Mississippi up in to West
Virginia. Along this line the main threats will be strong straight
line winds (especially in any bowing segments of the line) and flash
flooding under heavy downpours. There is a threat for hail and a
quick spin up tornado along the line, but the chances are much lower
than the wind and flooding threat. I hate to say this, but at this
time the confidence on the timing of that line is still pretty low
because models are in disagreement on the timing. Many of the CAMs
have the line moving into the plateau counties around 08z and
exiting east of the mountains by 14z, but the NAM and some other
models move it into the plateau by 12z and east of the mountains by
18z. Have trended the timing closer to the CAMs with the earlier
time of arrival. So while the confidence on the TIMING of the storms
is low, the confidence on strong storms occurring at some time
overnight is HIGHER.

Also of note is a Wind Advisory will be in effect overnight into
tomorrow morning for the southern Appalachian Mountains as the low
level jet moves over the area. Models indicate a core of up to 60
knots around 850mb will be present. It looks like it will weaken as
it approaches, so while this isn't a slam dunk wind advisory, the
winds will still be gusty in the mountains tonight.

All rain and gusty winds will be east of the mountains by mid day on
Sunday, and skies should begin to finally clear out by Sunday night.

ABM

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...

Little changes were made to the long term portion of the forecast as
weather quiets down for a while, and have stuck very close to
national guidance. There will be a minor threat for light snow in
the higher elevations early Thursday morning. And temperatures
currently are forecasted to fall at or below freezing for much of
the area Thursday/Friday/Saturday morning (Friday being the
coldest). Due to time constraints have inserted the previous long
term discussion below as it covers much of what this afternoons
forecast calls for in detail.

Drying conditions to begin late Sunday or Sunday night and much
cooler by Monday morning. Lows will drop in the mid to upper 30s.
This will be low enough for some patchy frost across northeast
Tennessee, southwest Virginia and the northern Cumberland Plateau.
Temperatures cooler Monday especially north as high pressure builds
in from the west and northwest. Drying will be short lived as active
pattern resumes Monday night. The surface high will shift quickly to
the northeast and mid Atlantic coast late Monday with a easterly and
southeast flow beginning to develop Monday night. Once again this
will bring moisture north over the old frontal boundary from Sunday
back to the north.

Showers will develop north of the boundary Monday night and Tuesday.
The accompanying cold front moving in from the west and northwest
will bring back showers and probable thunderstorms Wednesday.
Another period of moderate rainfall late Tuesday night and Wednesday
possibly heavy Wednesday evening could bring back some flood
concerns especially for some of the rivers. Wednesday night much
colder behind the front with lingering showers and enough cold air
for some snow showers. Some minor accumulations possible highest
elevation by Thursday morning. It will be cold enough early Thursday
that even some lower elevations snow showers could briefly occur.
Lows will drop down into the lower to mid 30s. Wrap around moisture
and cold air advection will keep clouds across much of the area
Thursday morning with afternoon clearing, so winter like
temperatures expected. Highs Thursday mid to upper 30s higher
elevations and lower elevations from the lower to mid 40s southwest
Virginia to the upper 40s to mid 50s in Tennessee. Friday high
pressure settles overhead with slow warming about 5 degrees warmer
then Thursday. Temperatures Friday will be even colder in the mid
20s northeast to the lower 30s southwest. Some frost is possible
depending on moisture increase as northwest winds will continue
across much of the area overnight. With the growing season already
underway a Frost advisory or Freeze Warning may need to be issued
for Friday over part of the forecast area.

A lead shortwave impulse will bring scattered showers Mon night
through Tues morning, followed by a better chance of both showers
and thunderstorms ahead of a strong cold front as the longwave
trough moves E on Wed. Behind this front Wed night through Fri, an
unseasonably deep mid/upper trough will dig into the eastern CONUS
with temps 10-15 degrees below normal. Any lingering showers could
mix with snow showers in the higher elevations late Wed night into
early Thurs before ending as drier air moves in during the day Thurs.

ABM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             68  40  65  46  67 / 100   0   0  10  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  67  37  62  41  71 / 100   0   0  10  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       67  36  62  41  70 / 100   0   0  10  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  34  61  38  71 / 100  10   0  10  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke
     Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-
     Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-
     Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-
     Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
     Roane-Scott-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
     Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-
     Union-Washington-West Polk.

     Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Lee-Russell-Scott-
     Washington-Wise.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
354 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-280800-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-
Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-
Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-
Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-
North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-
McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Russell-
354 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 /254 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today, mainly west of
Interstate 75. The primary threat with these storms will be large
hail, with damaging wind gusts also possible. An isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out in the southern TN Valley this evening. In
addition heavy downpours could lead to flash flooding across the
area.

There will also be the potential for heavy rainfall today, which
could cause flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to sweep across
the entire area on Sunday morning. The primary threat will be
damaging winds, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A
threat of flooding will also continue into Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports may be needed today and Sunday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1214 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

TNZ013-014-036>038-069-VAZ001-280500-
Anderson TN-Claiborne TN-Union TN-Campbell TN-Knox TN-Grainger TN-
Lee VA-
1214 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLAIBORNE...EASTERN ANDERSON...
NORTHWESTERN KNOX...SOUTHEASTERN CAMPBELL...NORTHWESTERN GRAINGER...
UNION AND SOUTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM EDT...

At 1214 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near La Follette to 7 miles south of Clinton.
Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Knoxville, Clinton, Maynardville, Rutledge, New Tazewell, Tazewell,
Plainview, Harrogate, Halls and Blaine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 8342 3660 8347 3657 8343 3629 8348
      3593 8416 3644 8406 3659 8387 3658 8369
      3662 8365 3662 8363 3664 8361 3664 8358
      3667 8352 3666 8345 3667 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 229DEG 44KT 3641 8403 3599 8411

DH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1235 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

TNZ012-013-035-036-280515-
Anderson TN-Scott TN-Campbell TN-Morgan TN-
1235 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MORGAN...NORTHWESTERN
ANDERSON...WESTERN CAMPBELL AND SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM EDT...

At 1234 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Huntsville to 8 miles south of Helenwood
to 10 miles northwest of Wartburg. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
La Follette, Oneida, Wartburg, Jacksboro, Huntsville, Helenwood,
Jellico, Caryville, Rocky Top and Winfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8404 3637 8414 3616 8418 3609 8464
      3611 8485 3616 8491 3621 8491 3624 8488
      3628 8488 3629 8486 3630 8480 3633 8477
      3634 8474 3637 8472 3637 8470 3640 8466
      3647 8470 3659 8462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0434Z 258DEG 32KT 3646 8449 3631 8454 3618 8474

SR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1241 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

TNZ038-039-070-280515-
Jefferson TN-Hamblen TN-Grainger TN-
1241 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN JEFFERSON...CENTRAL
GRAINGER AND WESTERN HAMBLEN COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM EDT...

At 1240 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
New Market, or 7 miles northwest of Jefferson City, moving east at 60
mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Morristown, Jefferson City, Rutledge, Bean Station, White Pine, New
Market, Blaine, Panther Creek State Park, Alpha and Joppa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3637 8330 3615 8322 3613 8322 3613 8324
      3609 8323 3610 8368 3611 8369 3611 8370
      3612 8369 3614 8372 3616 8373 3617 8372
      3618 8372 3634 8346
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 250DEG 50KT 3618 8359

SR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1255 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

TNZ015-016-038-039-042-VAZ001-005-280545-
Hamblen TN-Northwest Greene TN-Hancock TN-Grainger TN-Hawkins TN-
Scott VA-Lee VA-
1255 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAWKINS...HANCOCK...NORTHERN
GREENE...NORTHEASTERN GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...LEE AND SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM EDT...

At 1254 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles south of Hensley Store to 8 miles east
of Tazewell to near Morristown. Movement was east at 60 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Morristown, Rogersville, Sneedville, Jonesville, Bean Station,
Surgoinsville, Pennington Gap, Russellville, Church Hill and Mosheim.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3661 8274 3642 8268 3641 8270 3641 8268
      3631 8265 3614 8332 3642 8341 3641 8339
      3646 8337 3653 8340 3657 8343 3667 8342
      3669 8338 3679 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 0454Z 251DEG 51KT 3662 8336 3643 8341 3622 8335

SR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
118 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

TNZ012>014-036-037-280600-
Anderson TN-Claiborne TN-Scott TN-Union TN-Campbell TN-
118 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CLAIBORNE...NORTHERN
ANDERSON...CAMPBELL...EASTERN SCOTT AND UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM
EDT...

At 118 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Wilkerson to near Jacksboro. Movement was east
at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
La Follette, Maynardville, New Tazewell, Jacksboro, Harrogate,
Jellico, Caryville, Rocky Top, Norris and Norris Dam State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 8360 3634 8365 3634 8367 3633 8368
      3628 8369 3626 8370 3624 8369 3618 8446
      3659 8437 3658 8369 3660 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 0518Z 259DEG 36KT 3659 8399 3627 8418

SR

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