Alert archive / Tennessee / River Flood Warnings in 2021

River Flood Warning 11, NWS Morristown, TN

March 27, 2021Morgan County, Roane County, Tennessee

NWS Morristown, TN issued this river flood warning at Mar 27, 2021, 9:02 PM EDT for Morgan County, Roane County, Tennessee. It took effect at Mar 28, 2021, 9:44 AM EDT. It was in force for 12 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 27, 2021, 9:02 PM EDT (01:02 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 28, 2021, 9:44 AM EDT
Expired
Mar 28, 2021, 9:30 PM EDT
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Morristown, TN
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Morgan County, TN, Roane County, TN

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Emory River at Oakdale (OAKT1). The gauge peaked at 29.87 ft at Mar 28, 2021, 12:00 PM EDT.

actionminormoderatemajor10203003/2803/2903/30
Action stage
12 ft
Minor stage
27 ft
Moderate stage
28 ft
Major stage
30 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 03540500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

898 
WGUS44 KMRX 280102
FLWMRX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Morristown, Tennessee
902 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021

 (Remove this line and insert hydrometeorological basis section here)

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Most deaths in floods occur in automobiles. If you come to a closed 
or flooded road, Turn Around! Don't Drown! For more details, stay 
tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or commercial television or radio 
stations that carry weather information.

&&

GAC047-TNC065-290101-
/O.ROU.KMRX.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CHKT1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
902 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021

Forecast information for
  South Chickamauga Creek Near Chickamauga TN.
* At 08:15 PM Saturday the stage was 14.7 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise to near 15.0 feet Monday early 
  afternoon.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 8528 3511 8521 3497 8513 3497 8522


$$

TNC155-290101-
/O.ROU.KMRX.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SEVT1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
902 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021

Forecast information for
  Little Pigeon River Above Sevierville TN.
* At 08:30 PM Saturday the stage was 5.5 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise to near 10.0 feet tomorrow evening.
* At 12.0 feet...Parking lots of various dining and entertainment 
  venues along the river are flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3592 8365 3595 8356 3570 8346 3567 8356


$$

TNC009-290101-
/O.ROU.KMRX.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MYVT1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
902 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021

Forecast information for
  Little River AT Maryville.
* At 08:15 PM Saturday the stage was 10.4 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise to near 15.2 feet tomorrow evening.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 8379 3571 8383 3579 8391 3583 8396 3585 8392 3580 8385


$$
3 follow-up statements
058 
WGUS44 KMRX 281344
FLWMRX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Morristown TN
944 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Major severity and 
increased in duration for the following rivers in Tennessee...

  Emory River At Oakdale TN affecting Roane and Morgan Counties.

For the Emory River...including Oakdale TN...Major flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To escape rising water, take the shortest path to higher ground.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 1245 AM EDT.

&&


TNC129-145-290445-
/O.EXT.KMRX.FL.W.0011.210328T1344Z-210329T0613Z/
/OAKT1.3.ER.210328T1213Z.210328T1800Z.210329T0013Z.NO/
944 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Major severity and 
increased in duration until just after midnight tonight...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Emory River At Oakdale TN.
* From this morning to late tonight.
* At 9:00 AM EDT Sunday the stage was 27.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 32.0 feet 
  this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage this evening.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, Homes on the near side of Riverview Road 
  will have about 5 feet of water in them. Homes on the far side 
  will have up to 2 feet. Riverview Road is completely impassable.
* Impact...At 30.0 feet, Homes on Riverview Road are completely 
  inundated, with 5 to 8 feet of water.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 32.9 
  feet on 02/01/1939.


&&

LAT...LON 3614 8482 3620 8473 3594 8446 3589 8455

$$

GC
415 
WGUS84 KMRX 281836
FLSMRX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
236 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...Observed flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration for the following rivers in Tennessee...

  Emory River At Oakdale TN affecting Roane and Morgan Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 1230 AM EDT.

&&


TNC129-145-290430-
/O.EXT.KMRX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-210329T0427Z/
/OAKT1.2.ER.210328T1213Z.210328T1600Z.210328T2227Z.NO/
236 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...Observed flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration until just after midnight tonight...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Emory River At Oakdale TN.
* Until late tonight.
* At 2:00 PM EDT Sunday the stage was 29.3 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring.
* Recent Activity...The river has crested.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this 
  evening.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, Homes on the near side of Riverview Road 
  will have about 5 feet of water in them. Homes on the far side 
  will have up to 2 feet. Riverview Road is completely impassable.
* Impact...At 30.0 feet, Homes on Riverview Road are completely 
  inundated, with 5 to 8 feet of water.


&&

LAT...LON 3614 8482 3620 8473 3594 8446 3589 8455

$$

GC
515 
WGUS84 KMRX 290124
FLSMRX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
924 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Tennessee...Virginia...

  Clinch River Near Speers Ferry VA affecting Hancock and Scott 
  Counties.

  Clinch River Above Tazewell TN affecting Grainger, Hancock and 
  Claiborne Counties.

  North Fork Holston River Near Gate City VA affecting Sullivan, 
  Hawkins and Scott Counties.

  Sequatchie River Near Whitwell TN affecting Sequatchie, Bledsoe 
  and Marion Counties.

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Tennessee...

  Emory River At Oakdale TN affecting Roane and Morgan Counties.

  Pigeon River At Newport TN affecting Cocke County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Tennessee...Virginia...

  Powell River Near Jonesville VA affecting Hancock and Lee 
  Counties.

  Powell River Near Arthur TN affecting Union and Claiborne 
  Counties.

For the Clinch River...including Cleveland VA, Speers Ferry VA, 
Tazewell TN...Minor flooding is forecast.
For the North Fork Holston River...including Gate City VA...Moderate 
flooding is forecast.
For the Powell River...including Jonesville VA, Arthur TN...Moderate 
flooding is forecast.
For the Sequatchie River...including Whitwell TN...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Monday.

&&


TNC029-290230-
/O.CAN.KMRX.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-210329T0124Z/
/NEPT1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
924 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Pigeon River At Newport TN has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Pigeon River At Newport TN.
* At 8:00 PM EDT Sunday the stage was 7.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 4.9 feet Friday 
  evening.


&&

LAT...LON 3578 8309 3577 8318 3591 8322 3603 8321
      3597 8316 3586 8315

$$

TNC129-145-290230-
/O.CAN.KMRX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-210329T0124Z/
/OAKT1.2.ER.210328T1213Z.210328T1600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
924 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Emory River At Oakdale TN has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Emory River At Oakdale TN.
* At 8:00 PM EDT Sunday the stage was 23.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 7.3 feet early Friday 
  afternoon.


&&

LAT...LON 3614 8482 3620 8473 3594 8446 3589 8455

$$

TNC067-VAC169-291630-
/O.EXT.KMRX.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-210330T1240Z/
/SFYV2.1.ER.210328T1713Z.210329T0600Z.210330T0640Z.NO/
924 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Tuesday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Clinch River Near Speers Ferry VA.
* Until Tuesday morning.
* At 8:15 PM EDT Sunday the stage was 22.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:15 PM EDT Sunday was 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 23.0 feet 
  just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage 
  early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, County Road 627 just downstream floods.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet, One or two houses are threatened.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, A few additional homes are affected. 
  Evacuations are possible.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 22.6 
  feet on 01/17/2013.


&&

LAT...LON 3654 8295 3658 8302 3683 8252 3676 8245

$$

TNC067-VAC105-291630-
/O.EXT.KMRX.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-210329T1630Z/
/JNSV2.1.ER.210328T1550Z.210328T2345Z.210329T1030Z.NO/
924 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early tomorrow 
afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Powell River Near Jonesville VA.
* Until Monday afternoon.
* At 8:45 PM EDT Sunday the stage was 23.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:45 PM EDT Sunday was 23.8 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage 
  tomorrow morning and continue falling to 4.4 feet Friday evening.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, The river invades several fields and 
  reaches a few farm buildings.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Low lying sections of Routes 641 and 783 
  are affected and some private driveways are flooded.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet, A few homes are slightly affected and about 
  100 acres are flooded.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on 05/07/1984.


&&

LAT...LON 3653 8339 3658 8344 3671 8310 3686 8285
      3680 8282 3666 8302

$$

TNC073-163-VAC169-291630-
/O.EXT.KMRX.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-210330T0312Z/
/GATV2.2.ER.210328T1111Z.210329T0600Z.210329T2112Z.NO/
924 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fork Holston River Near Gate City VA.
* Until Monday evening.
* At 8:15 PM EDT Sunday the stage was 14.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:15 PM EDT Sunday was 14.9 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 15.0 feet 
  just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage 
  tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet, Caution stage.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet, Water begins to cover some low lying county 
  roads.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, County Road 614 is cut off 1 1/2 miles 
  downstream from the Highway 23 bridge.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 13.6 
  feet on 01/16/2013.


&&

LAT...LON 3641 8283 3651 8288 3673 8235 3662 8233

$$

TNC025-057-067-291630-
/O.EXT.KMRX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-210331T0123Z/
/TAZT1.1.ER.210328T1109Z.210329T1800Z.210330T1923Z.NO/
924 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late Tuesday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Clinch River Above Tazewell TN.
* Until Tuesday evening.
* At 8:00 PM EDT Sunday the stage was 14.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:00 PM EDT Sunday was 14.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 15.5 feet 
  early tomorrow afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage 
  Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet, Flooding of pasture land near Grissom 
  Island begins. The city of Tazewell, Tennessee is not affected by 
  flooding of the Clinch River.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Extensive flooding of pasture land around 
  Grissom Island occurs. The city of Tazewell, Tennessee is not 
  affected by flooding of the Clinch River.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 14.0 
  feet on 02/01/2013.


&&

LAT...LON 3631 8356 3637 8359 3659 8308 3659 8296

$$

TNC007-115-153-291630-
/O.EXT.KMRX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210330T1536Z/
/WHTT1.1.ER.210329T0720Z.210329T1800Z.210330T0936Z.NO/
824 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late Tuesday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Sequatchie River Near Whitwell TN.
* Until Tuesday morning.
* At 7:15 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 13.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage just 
  after midnight tonight to a crest of 15.0 feet early tomorrow 
  afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early Tuesday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Flooding of agricultural land occurs.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Flooding of agricultural land becomes more 
  extensive. Water reaches the bottom of the river gage house.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 14.7 
  feet on 07/08/2013.


&&

LAT...LON 3555 8528 3552 8523 3510 8551 3501 8561
      3504 8566

$$

TNC025-173-291630-
/O.CON.KMRX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-210331T0400Z/
/ARTT1.2.ER.210328T1005Z.210330T0600Z.210330T2200Z.NO/
924 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Powell River Near Arthur TN.
* Until late Tuesday night.
* At 8:15 PM EDT Sunday the stage was 23.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:15 PM EDT Sunday was 23.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 25.5 feet 
  early Tuesday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Tuesday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, Caution stage.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Minor flooding begins.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Water covers roads along both banks of the 
  river.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 24.1 
  feet on 03/06/2015.


&&

LAT...LON 3658 8344 3651 8337 3649 8360 3637 8382
      3643 8388 3657 8365

$$

Garuckas

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Mar 27, 7:56 PM EDT, 1 hour 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 27, 7:56 PM EDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
756 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tomorrow)...

Active weather will continue for the next 18-24 hours. Morning
convection that was mainly elevated brought numerous storms with
large hail and a few strong wind reports. That stuff has now moved
east of the Appalachian Mountains. The next area of concern will be
looking back across most of southern Tennessee. Warm front has
nudged into the southern parts of Tennessee and this could act to
focus the severe threat along and south of the front for another
round of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Hard to pinpoint where the front is based on surface obs due to them
also being influenced by the storms out there, but it's likely just
north of Chattanooga and definitely south of Knoxville as of this
writing. The big question for eastern Tennessee will be if
convection gets initiated in southeast Tennessee near the front.
Several CAMs seem to be hinting that the best mid/upper level
forcing will remain across middle and western Tennessee. Combine
this with the fact that the atmosphere in southeast TN got worked
over with the morning convection, and they haven't really broken up
the clouds much today, so think the atmosphere really hasn't had an
opportunity to destabilize today (which is maybe what happened with
the severe event about week ago). So unfortunately confidence on
storms firing across southeast Tennessee is low at this time.
Mesoscale analysis indicates that the atmosphere well south of the
front (more in AL/GA) is primed for some strong storms, but chances
for convective initiation is lower there due to lack of forcing. So
east Tennessee is kind of right on the edge of the better atmosphere
and forcing to see strong to severe storms this afternoon. So can't
let your guard down just yet as any storms moving in from Middle TN
and northern AL could remain or become severe this afternoon if
they're able to maintain.

As we move into tonight expect storms across middle TN to move into
northeast TN and southwest VA. The timing of these storms isn't
great to see severe thunderstorms, especially if they remain north
of the front. But even with elevated storms the threat for hail and
gusty winds will remain. The other threat which will impact the most
people will be the potential for flooding to get re-aggravated again
with any storms overnight. Flash Flood Watch has been expanded
across the entire forecast area and will remain that way into
tomorrow. Even though the rain will most likely be gone by morning
tomorrow the watch is out until the evening just to give people a
heads up since flood waters can take a while to recede.

Overnight the next best chance for severe weather will approach as
the cold front pushes through the area. A line of thunderstorms is
expected along the entire front from Mississippi up in to West
Virginia. Along this line the main threats will be strong straight
line winds (especially in any bowing segments of the line) and flash
flooding under heavy downpours. There is a threat for hail and a
quick spin up tornado along the line, but the chances are much lower
than the wind and flooding threat. I hate to say this, but at this
time the confidence on the timing of that line is still pretty low
because models are in disagreement on the timing. Many of the CAMs
have the line moving into the plateau counties around 08z and
exiting east of the mountains by 14z, but the NAM and some other
models move it into the plateau by 12z and east of the mountains by
18z. Have trended the timing closer to the CAMs with the earlier
time of arrival. So while the confidence on the TIMING of the storms
is low, the confidence on strong storms occurring at some time
overnight is HIGHER.

Also of note is a Wind Advisory will be in effect overnight into
tomorrow morning for the southern Appalachian Mountains as the low
level jet moves over the area. Models indicate a core of up to 60
knots around 850mb will be present. It looks like it will weaken as
it approaches, so while this isn't a slam dunk wind advisory, the
winds will still be gusty in the mountains tonight.

All rain and gusty winds will be east of the mountains by mid day on
Sunday, and skies should begin to finally clear out by Sunday night.

ABM

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...

Little changes were made to the long term portion of the forecast as
weather quiets down for a while, and have stuck very close to
national guidance. There will be a minor threat for light snow in
the higher elevations early Thursday morning. And temperatures
currently are forecasted to fall at or below freezing for much of
the area Thursday/Friday/Saturday morning (Friday being the
coldest). Due to time constraints have inserted the previous long
term discussion below as it covers much of what this afternoons
forecast calls for in detail.

Drying conditions to begin late Sunday or Sunday night and much
cooler by Monday morning. Lows will drop in the mid to upper 30s.
This will be low enough for some patchy frost across northeast
Tennessee, southwest Virginia and the northern Cumberland Plateau.
Temperatures cooler Monday especially north as high pressure builds
in from the west and northwest. Drying will be short lived as active
pattern resumes Monday night. The surface high will shift quickly to
the northeast and mid Atlantic coast late Monday with a easterly and
southeast flow beginning to develop Monday night. Once again this
will bring moisture north over the old frontal boundary from Sunday
back to the north.

Showers will develop north of the boundary Monday night and Tuesday.
The accompanying cold front moving in from the west and northwest
will bring back showers and probable thunderstorms Wednesday.
Another period of moderate rainfall late Tuesday night and Wednesday
possibly heavy Wednesday evening could bring back some flood
concerns especially for some of the rivers. Wednesday night much
colder behind the front with lingering showers and enough cold air
for some snow showers. Some minor accumulations possible highest
elevation by Thursday morning. It will be cold enough early Thursday
that even some lower elevations snow showers could briefly occur.
Lows will drop down into the lower to mid 30s. Wrap around moisture
and cold air advection will keep clouds across much of the area
Thursday morning with afternoon clearing, so winter like
temperatures expected. Highs Thursday mid to upper 30s higher
elevations and lower elevations from the lower to mid 40s southwest
Virginia to the upper 40s to mid 50s in Tennessee. Friday high
pressure settles overhead with slow warming about 5 degrees warmer
then Thursday. Temperatures Friday will be even colder in the mid
20s northeast to the lower 30s southwest. Some frost is possible
depending on moisture increase as northwest winds will continue
across much of the area overnight. With the growing season already
underway a Frost advisory or Freeze Warning may need to be issued
for Friday over part of the forecast area.

A lead shortwave impulse will bring scattered showers Mon night
through Tues morning, followed by a better chance of both showers
and thunderstorms ahead of a strong cold front as the longwave
trough moves E on Wed. Behind this front Wed night through Fri, an
unseasonably deep mid/upper trough will dig into the eastern CONUS
with temps 10-15 degrees below normal. Any lingering showers could
mix with snow showers in the higher elevations late Wed night into
early Thurs before ending as drier air moves in during the day Thurs.

ABM

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A lull in convection for TAF sites will persist for the next few
hours. There may be a few showers pass over an airfield but
believe the biggest threat will be early in the morning when a
line of strong thunderstorms moves through the region. Some wind
gusts may exceed current TAF forecast. Timing confidence is medium
to high when strongest storms move through. After 12z tomorrow
confidence lowers on prevailing conditions but should be MVFR/VFR
especially after 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             60  68  40  65  46 /  80  90  10   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  57  67  37  62  41 /  80  90  10   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       56  67  36  62  41 /  80  90  10   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              56  66  34  61  38 /  80  90  20   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke
     Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-
     Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-
     Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-
     Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
     Roane-Scott-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
     Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-
     Union-Washington-West Polk.

     Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Sunday for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Lee-Russell-Scott-
     Washington-Wise.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 27, 3:54 PM EDT, 5 hours 8 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
354 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-280800-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-
Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-
Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-
Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-
North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-
McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Russell-
354 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 /254 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today, mainly west of
Interstate 75. The primary threat with these storms will be large
hail, with damaging wind gusts also possible. An isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out in the southern TN Valley this evening. In
addition heavy downpours could lead to flash flooding across the
area.

There will also be the potential for heavy rainfall today, which
could cause flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to sweep across
the entire area on Sunday morning. The primary threat will be
damaging winds, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A
threat of flooding will also continue into Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports may be needed today and Sunday.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 27, 8:11 PM EDT, 51 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
811 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021

TNZ081>084-099-280100-
Sequatchie TN-Rhea TN-Bledsoe TN-Hamilton TN-Meigs TN-
811 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN RHEA...SEQUATCHIE...
SOUTHWESTERN BLEDSOE...SOUTHWESTERN MEIGS AND NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT/800 PM CDT/...

At 810 PM EDT/710 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm over Dunlap, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dayton, Dunlap, Pikeville, Soddy-Daisy, Graysville, Flat Top
Mountain, Big Spring, Sale Creek, Palio and Brayton.

LAT...LON 3534 8553 3536 8551 3537 8551 3538 8549
      3567 8509 3539 8488 3522 8539
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 241DEG 32KT 3533 8538

Diegan
Special weather statement, Mar 27, 8:12 PM EDT, 50 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
812 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021

TNZ081>084-099-280100-
Sequatchie TN-Rhea TN-Bledsoe TN-Hamilton TN-Meigs TN-
812 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN RHEA...SOUTHEASTERN
SEQUATCHIE...SOUTHWESTERN BLEDSOE...SOUTHWESTERN MEIGS AND
NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT/800 PM CDT/...

At 812 PM EDT/712 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm over Dunlap, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dayton, Dunlap, Soddy-Daisy, Graysville, Flat Top Mountain, Big
Spring, Evensville, Sale Creek, Mowbray Mountain and Old Washington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3522 8537 3538 8548 3565 8499 3542 8483
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 240DEG 25KT 3534 8535

DH
Local storm report, Mar 27, 8:33 PM EDT, 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
833 PM EDT SAT MAR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E DUFF                36.45N 84.01W
03/27/2021                   CAMPBELL           TN   PUBLIC

            A FEW TREES DOWN.

&&

DH
Local storm report, Mar 27, 8:50 PM EDT, 12 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
850 PM EDT SAT MAR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             7 W MARTIN SPRINGS      35.18N 85.67W
03/27/2021  E1.00 INCH       MARION             TN   PUBLIC

&&

DH
Special weather statement, Mar 27, 8:57 PM EDT, 5 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
857 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021

TNZ016-017-VAZ005-280145-
Sullivan TN-Hawkins TN-Scott VA-
857 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SULLIVAN...NORTHEASTERN
HAWKINS AND SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

At 857 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Surgoinsville, or 13 miles west of Kingsport, moving east at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kingsport, Bristol Tn, Surgoinsville, Weber City, Spurgeon, Colonial
Heights, Walnut Hill, Oak Grove, Church Hill and Mount Carmel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3643 8240 3644 8242 3644 8250 3646 8289
      3657 8289 3658 8287 3664 8231 3660 8230
      3659 8227 3642 8225
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 266DEG 36KT 3652 8279

Diegan
Local storm report, Mar 27, 8:59 PM EDT, 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
859 PM EDT SAT MAR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     HAIL             2 SSE HILTONS           36.62N 82.45W
03/27/2021  E1.00 INCH       SCOTT              VA   PUBLIC

            A FEW TREES DOWN.

&&

DH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Morristown, TN issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 27, 8:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMRXCampbell, Claiborne, Grainger, Hancock, Union40 min
Mar 27, 8:09 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningMRXAnderson, Campbell, Claiborne, Morgan, Scott, Union3 hr
Mar 27, 8:11 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXSequatchie49 min
Mar 27, 8:12 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXSequatchie48 min
Mar 27, 8:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMRXCarter, Johnson, Sullivan44 min
Mar 27, 8:36 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningMRXClaiborne, Grainger, Hancock, Hawkins, Sullivan, Union3 hr
Mar 27, 8:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMRXClaiborne, Grainger, Hamblen, Hancock, Hawkins47 min
Mar 27, 8:55 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMRXBledsoe, Hamilton, Marion, Rhea, Sequatchie3 hr
Mar 27, 8:57 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXSullivan48 min
Mar 27, 9:10 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXJefferson50 min
Mar 27, 9:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMRXGreene, Hamblen, Hawkins, Washington39 min
Mar 27, 9:22 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXLoudon38 min
Mar 27, 9:25 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXLoudon50 min
Mar 27, 9:42 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXKnox48 min
Mar 27, 9:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMRXCarter, Greene, Unicoi, Washington24 min
Mar 27, 9:50 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXJohnson40 min
Mar 27, 10:00 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXGreene, Unicoi45 min
Mar 27, 10:19 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMRXCarter, Greene, Hawkins, Sullivan, Washington3 hr
Mar 27, 10:32 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXAnderson, Campbell, Morgan43 min
Mar 27, 11:13 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningMRXAnderson, Campbell, Claiborne, Morgan, Scott, Union3 hr
Mar 27, 11:37 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningMRXClaiborne, Grainger, Hancock, Hawkins, Sullivan, Union3 hr
Mar 28, 12:14 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXClaiborne, Grainger, Union46 min
Mar 28, 12:18 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMRXAnderson, Campbell, Claiborne, Grainger, Union57 min
Mar 28, 12:35 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXCampbell, Morgan, Scott40 min
Mar 28, 12:41 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXGrainger, Hamblen34 min
Mar 28, 12:55 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXHamblen, Hancock, Hawkins50 min
Mar 28, 1:14 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningMRXClaiborne, Grainger, Greene, Hamblen, Hancock, Hawkins and 2 more3 hr
Mar 28, 1:18 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXCampbell, Claiborne, Union42 min
Mar 28, 1:39 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXSullivan51 min
Mar 28, 1:43 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningMRXCarter, Johnson, Sullivan, Washington3 hr
Mar 28, 1:47 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMRXGreene, Hawkins, Sullivan, Washington43 min
Mar 28, 2:11 AM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatMRXAnderson, Campbell, Claiborne, Morgan, Scott, Union3 hr
Mar 28, 2:18 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMRXJohnson, Sullivan42 min
Mar 28, 2:58 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningMRXCarter, Johnson, Sullivan, Washington3 hr
Mar 28, 3:12 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXMorgan, Scott48 min
Mar 28, 4:04 AM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatMRXClaiborne, Grainger, Greene, Hamblen, Hancock, Hawkins and 2 more7 hr
Mar 28, 4:09 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXCampbell, Morgan, Scott51 min
Mar 28, 4:16 AM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatMRXSullivan3 hr
Mar 28, 4:27 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXBledsoe63 min
Mar 28, 4:58 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXAnderson, Campbell, Claiborne, Morgan47 min
Mar 28, 5:03 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXMeigs, Rhea, Roane42 min
Mar 28, 5:07 AM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatMRXAnderson, Campbell, Claiborne, Morgan, Scott, Union5 hr
Mar 28, 5:15 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMRXAnderson, Campbell, Claiborne, Union17 min
Mar 28, 5:26 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMRXBledsoe, Rhea, Sequatchie71 min
Mar 28, 5:38 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXGrainger, Hancock, Union52 min
Mar 28, 5:43 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXAnderson, Knox47 min
Mar 28, 5:43 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMRXMarion47 min
Mar 28, 5:48 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXMeigs, Rhea, Roane42 min
Mar 28, 6:08 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXHawkins52 min
Mar 28, 6:19 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXHamilton, McMinn41 min
Mar 28, 6:34 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXGrainger, Hamblen, Hancock, Hawkins, Jefferson, Sevier41 min
Mar 28, 6:36 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningMRXBledsoe, Marion, Rhea, Sequatchie6 hr
Mar 28, 6:40 AM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatMRXAnderson, Knox, Loudon, Morgan, Roane, Union5 hr
Mar 28, 6:43 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXKnox, Loudon, Meigs, Roane47 min
Mar 28, 6:51 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXBradley, McMinn, Monroe, Polk39 min
Mar 28, 7:08 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningMRXSullivan6 hr
Mar 28, 7:15 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXCocke, Grainger, Greene, Hamblen, Hancock, Hawkins and 2 more45 min
Mar 28, 7:17 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningMRXBradley, Hamilton, McMinn, Meigs, Rhea, Sequatchie6 hr
Mar 28, 7:27 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXBlount, Sevier33 min
Mar 28, 7:27 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXPolk63 min
Mar 28, 7:34 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningMRXClaiborne, Grainger, Hancock51 hr
Mar 28, 7:41 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningMRXClaiborne, Union52 hr
Mar 28, 7:46 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningMRXHawkins, Sullivan35 hr
Mar 28, 7:49 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningMRXGrainger, Hamblen, Jefferson, Knox, Sevier5 hr
Mar 28, 7:52 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningMRXBradley, Hamilton, Polk5 hr
Mar 28, 8:00 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXCarter, Cocke, Greene, Hawkins, Sullivan, Unicoi and 1 more45 min
Mar 28, 8:03 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningMRXBlount, Knox, Loudon, McMinn, Monroe, Polk and 1 more4 hr
Mar 28, 8:21 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXSevier24 min
Mar 28, 8:26 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningMRXBlount, Cocke, Sevier5 hr
Mar 28, 8:43 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningMRXGreene, Hawkins, Unicoi, Washington4 hr
Mar 28, 8:45 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningMRXCarter, Johnson4 hr
Mar 28, 9:05 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningMRXHancock23 hr
Mar 28, 9:32 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningMRXCocke20 hr
Mar 28, 10:08 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningMRXAnderson, Campbell, Claiborne, Morgan, Scott, Union21 hr
Mar 28, 11:07 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningMRXHancock33 hr
Mar 28, 11:10 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningMRXClaiborne, Grainger, Greene, Hamblen, Hancock, Hawkins and 2 more21 hr
Mar 28, 11:11 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningMRXClaiborne, Grainger, Greene, Hamblen, Hancock, Hawkins and 2 more20 hr
Mar 28, 11:43 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningMRXAnderson, Knox, Loudon, Morgan, Roane3 hr
Mar 28, 12:38 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningMRXGreene, Hawkins, Unicoi, Washington3 hr
Mar 28, 12:43 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningMRXCarter, Johnson5 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Tennessee, 2021Every river flood warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.