Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated 18z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 956 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021/

DISCUSSION...

Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this morning with
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. A very warm and humid day is
in store across the region as temperatures reach the lower 90s
during the afternoon. A few thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon mainly over eastern sections of the Mid-South.
Will update forecast to remove morning wording.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021/

DISCUSSION... /issued 508 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021/

Not out of the woods yet with respect to thunderstorm chances
today, given considerable CAPE. However, light northerly flow from
the surface up will limit shear and resultant storm formation and
organization potential. Most favored areas for storms: south of
I-40, where dewpoints will be higher, and near the TN River, where
bulk shear and weaker capping at 700mb is expected. Otherwise,
expect heat indices to average around 5 degrees cooler than
yesterday, across the Midsouth.

Storm chances will trend toward zero by evening and continue
through Monday under shortwave ridging aloft, and sub-70 degree
dewpoints in most places.

Weak northwest flow aloft will prevail Tuesday, as seasonal
temperatures are accompanied by dewpoints in the 60s. Our moderate
weather will be in contrast with the western U.S., where a 600dm
500mb height ridge - impressive for early summer - will amplify
over the 4-corners region.

The western U.S. upper ridge will flatten and expand eastward
Thursday into Friday, as a longwave trof over the eastern U.S.
lifts offshore. Late week temps over the Midsouth will warm a
little more than previously forecast, but average only a couple
degrees above normal. In addition, it appears dewpoints will
remain in the 60s, which will help moderate heat indices. This
relatively dry air (for June) will also limit late week rain
chances, in the absence of any significant surface front or upper
shortwave passages.

Weak northwest flow aloft will continue through next weekend. The
operational GFS appears a bit too quick to drop a cold front
through the Midsouth Friday night. The more likely scenario is a
weaker frontal passage, delayed until Saturday, with less storm
coverage.

In summary, relatively benign mid-June weather forecast for the
next seven days.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/
Patchy showers will continue to produce over the Mid-South.
COnfidence is low on location but TUP has the greatest chance for
severe storms this evening. Otherwise winds will mainly be N/NE at
5-8 kts.

SWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
732 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-141445-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
732 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are expected mainly near the Tennessee
River this morning, and south of Interstate 40 this afternoon and
early evening. A few storms today could produce strong winds and
brief heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

MSZ006-017-131730-
Itawamba MS-Tishomingo MS-
1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Itawamba County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern Tishomingo County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 1202 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40
mph was located near Tishomingo State Park, moving southwest at 20
mph.

Very heavy rain is also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Itawamba and southeastern Tishomingo Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3430 8817 3437 8843 3447 8837 3447 8833
      3452 8833 3474 8819 3471 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 032DEG 19KT 3463 8812

SWB

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