Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
637 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021/

A few thunderstorms have popped up across the Mid-South this hot
afternoon. Instability is robust with moderate shear values. PWATs
are still high at 1.9 inches. With that being said storms this
afternoon and early evening may be briefly severe with damaging
wind gusts. Training of storms could be an issue later this
evening so heavy rain/flooding may be possible. Coverage should be
minimal through this evening so confidence is low on location of
shower development. Additionally, heat indices have inched
towards 99 to 103. Showers and storms will slowly fizzle late
tonight and patchy fog is expected again tonight.

Sunday may be a little cooler than today, but still hot with heat
indices nearing 100. Showers will likely pop up again tomorrow,
mainly south of the I-40 corridor.Again, a couple could be strong
to briefly severe through early evening Sunday. Wind will be the
main threat.

By Monday, northwest flow will increase as an upper ridge over the
Plains moves towards the four corners. By Wednesday the ridge
will settle to our west with a trough to our east. This set up
will being less humid air will settle over the area with
temperatures in the mid 80s. A weak cold front will push through
the area Friday night into Saturday. Unfortunately, heat and
humidity will start creeping up again along with a chance for
scattered thunderstorms.

SWB

&&

.AVIATION...00z TAFs

Only isolated convection on the radar this afternoon. Coverage
should diminish even more over the next few hours. Patchy fog/BR
is likely again tonight near TUP and MKL. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected again tomorrow afternoon, most numerous
near MKL and TUP. Winds generally north to northwest, light
tonight, around 5-7kt tomorrow.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
327 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-131030-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
327 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms over the Midsouth
through early evening. Primary risks include damaging winds and
localized flash flooding.

Outside of areas affected by thunderstorms, afternoon heat indices
will range 100 to 105 degrees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
514 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

TNZ004-021-022-122245-
Carroll TN-Benton TN-Henry TN-
514 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Carroll County in western Tennessee...
West central Benton County in western Tennessee...
Henry County in western Tennessee...

At 513 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Paris, moving south
at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Carroll...west central Benton and Henry
Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3650 8839 3649 8815 3602 8818 3608 8850
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 008DEG 15KT 3628 8830

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
535 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             PARIS                   36.30N  88.31W
06/12/2021  E0.88 INCH       HENRY              TN   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN PARIS, TN

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
546 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     FLOOD            PARIS                   36.30N  88.31W
06/12/2021                   HENRY              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING NEAR THE FIRE STATION AND HOSPITAL ALONG TYSON
            ROAD.

&&

JDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
622 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

ARZ026-028-MOZ113-122345-
Craighead AR-Mississippi AR-Dunklin MO-
622 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR...

East central Craighead County in eastern Arkansas...
Northwestern Mississippi County in eastern Arkansas...
South central Dunklin County in southeastern Missouri...

At 622 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Manila, moving
southwest at 10 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in east central Craighead...northwestern Mississippi and south
central Dunklin Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3608 9009 3591 8991 3567 9018 3586 9040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 043DEG 9KT 3590 9014

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