Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
633 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 518 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021/

DISCUSSION...

..Major flash flooding remains a concern over north Mississippi
and southeastern Arkansas this morning...

The rain continues to fall across north Mississippi at this hour.
Latest KNQA radar shows a large slow-moving swath of moderate to
heavy rainfall across the majority of north Mississippi and
southeast Arkansas. Latest Dual-Pol instantaneous precipitation
rates are generally in the 1 to 3 inch per hour range. However,
isolated activity currently over Tunica County is much higher at
4 to 5 inch per hour. The overall trend should continue to be in
the 1 to 3 inch range, but isolated cells could still produce
prolific 4 to 5 inch per hour. CAMs were not initializing well
earlier, but are starting to pick up on current trends but still
underdoing intensity. As such, expect continued training of
showers and thunderstorms over north Mississippi and southeast
Arkansas through at least late morning. Decided to extend the
Flash Flood Watch through 7PM in case another round of storms
develops, which is certainly possible in this current regime.

The upper level low has opened up a bit and now contains several
shortwaves on its southwest flank. These small waves are providing
just enough lift to properly vent storms over the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Latest GOES water vapor shows very cold cloud
temperatures over east Central Arkansas at this hour. This
complex of storms will slowly migrate into the Mid-South over the
next several hours, bringing the threat of more prolific rainfall.
WPC has gone ahead and issued a High Risk of Excessive Rainfall
for almost all of north Mississippi with a moderate risk around
the high and into portions of west Tennessee. The rest of the area
is in a slight risk. PWAT values of over 2 inches remain above
the 99th percentile range, which explains the prolific rainfall
that we have received.

There is still some concern that the flash flood threat could
continue into Thursday morning as the upper low remains nearly
stationary and the airmass relatively unchanged. As a result, a
flash flood watch may still be needed through Thursday morning.

Several more shortwaves will rotate through the region Thursday
into Friday and will reignite showers and thunderstorms over much
of the Mid-South including already hard hit Mississippi and
southeastern Arkansas. Will continue to advertise the threat in
the HWO through Friday.

The upper low will finally lift out of the Mid-South by Friday
night, bringing us a much needed break from the rain. However,
models continue to hint that the Mid-South will remain on the
eastern periphery of the ridge over the Southern Plains. This
solution keeps us in the main storm track and keeps rain chances
up. In fact, we may not see a break from the rain until Sunday as
drier northwest flow sets up over the area.

Models are consistent with a cold front moving through the region
on Monday and more showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front,
widespread dry conditions will return to the Mid-South and will
hopefully persist through the end of the week.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs

Similar scenario to yesterday, with cut-off low pressure over the
area and a tropical maritime airmass. Following the passage of
heavy rain and isolated TS through MEM through 13Z, instability
should be sufficiently limited to preclude TS mention until the
afternoon. At that point, SHRA/TSRA and associated IFR visibilities
will be possible just about anywhere, given the rich tropical air.

CAMs suggest less SHRA/TSRA coverage tonight, relative to previous
nights, but confidence in these depictions remain marginal at
best. IFR appears a good bet after 06Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Lee AR-Phillips.

MO...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
530 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-101230-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
530 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Significant flash flooding, areal flooding, and river flooding is
expected to continue through this afternoon across all of north
Mississippi and southeast Arkansas. The flooding threat may extend
into portions of west Tennessee, mainly along the state border of
Mississippi.

A few strong to severe storms are possible today, mainly across
north Mississippi. Damaging winds are the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on both
Thursday and Friday. This additional rainfall could exacerbate
flooding issues across the Mid-South, especially hard hit areas of
north Mississippi.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

AC3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
737 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW OXFORD            34.37N  89.55W
06/09/2021                   LAFAYETTE          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HATHORN ROAD CLOSED NEAR JACKSON ROAD CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODED ROADWAY.

&&

PWB

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