Areal Flood Warning 12, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1142 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 949 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021/

UPDATE...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along and south of
the MS/TN border. The latest HRRR shows development in that area,
but not this early. Flash flooding will be a concern through the
overnight hours. Will update to make some adjustments to POPS and
temperatures.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /issued 322 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021/

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms continue to track over the same
general areas from east central Arkansas across much of north
Mississippi. Precipitable water values of over 2 inches have
resulted in rainfall rates up to 2.5 inches per hour. Widespread
flooding has been reported across much of north Mississippi. Flash
flood guidance has been exceeded by over 300% in some locations.
In west Tallahatchie county MRMS guidance indicated over a 200
year return period. A Flash Flood watch and a Severe thunderstorm
watch continue through 7pm. These products may be need to be
extended.

Overnight, a weak upper low likely responsible for enhancing
storms across the area today will track east into Kentucky.
However, much of the Midsouth will remain on the east side of a
trough centered over east Arkansas. As a result, at least showers
will continue with isolated thunderstorms. Any additional storms
over north Mississippi could be problematic.

Tomorrow, showers and thunderstorms will likely become enhanced
once again during the afternoon hours. Currently the Storm
Prediction Center only has general thunderstorms in their day 2
outlook. Lingering outflow boundaries from storms today and
tonight, especially intersecting boundaries could help to
initialize storms and enhance updrafts. Once again any additional
rain where flooding occurred today and overnight could quickly
exaggerate ongoing flooding issues or lead to additional issues.

Diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms are likely each day
across the Midsouth for the remainder of the work week. The
weekend doesn't look as dry anymore as it did in previous model
runs.

Temperatures should trend slightly warmer each day through the
work week with upper 80s to low 90s returning over the weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

In the short term...expect SHRAs and TSRAs to continue to develop
across east-central AR and N MS overnight. Latest HRRR has
convection pushing into the KMEM area overnight as well. Going
with periods of SHRAs with VCTS at KMEM and KTUP overnight into
Wednesday AM. Fairly quiet precip wise at KJBR and KMKL. Otrw
expect cigs to lower to IFR/MVFR areawide overnight with LIFR
likely at KJBR. Cigs will slowly improve to VFR by Wed afternoon
with additional SHRA/TSRA development due to heating...though
KTUP will likely be worked over and relatively quiet during the
afternoon. South winds at 6-8 kts overnight becoming SSW at 7-10
kts with a few higher gusts Wed aftn.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Lee AR-
     Phillips.

MO...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Alcorn-Benton
     MS-Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee
     MS-Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
227 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-092130-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
227 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Significant flooding and strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon and possibly into the overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening
through at least Thursday. These showers and storms could produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

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