River Flood Warning 79, NWS Memphis, TN

264 
WGUS84 KMEG 091540
FLSMEG

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1040 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Skuna River at Bruce

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/memphis.

The next statement will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&


MSC013-100000-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0079.000000T0000Z-210610T0000Z/
/BRCM6.1.ER.210609T1800Z.210609T1800Z.210609T1800Z.NO/
1040 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Skuna River at Bruce.
* Until this evening.
* At 10:15 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 30.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 31.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 31.0 feet 
  this afternoon.
* Impact...At 31.0 feet, widespread lowland and farm land flooding 
  is occurring.


&&

LAT...LON 3400 8959 3412 8914 3400 8914 3390 8943
      3387 8959

$$

MJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
518 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.DISCUSSION...

...Major flash flooding remains a concern over north Mississippi
and southeastern Arkansas this morning...

The rain continues to fall across north Mississippi at this hour.
Latest KNQA radar shows a large slow-moving swath of moderate to
heavy rainfall across the majority of north Mississippi and
southeast Arkansas. Latest Dual-Pol instantaneous precipitation
rates are generally in the 1 to 3 inch per hour range. However,
isolated activity currently over Tunica County is much higher at
4 to 5 inch per hour. The overall trend should continue to be in
the 1 to 3 inch range, but isolated cells could still produce
prolific 4 to 5 inch per hour. CAMs were not initializing well
earlier, but are starting to pick up on current trends but still
underdoing intensity. As such, expect continued training of
showers and thunderstorms over north Mississippi and southeast
Arkansas through at least late morning. Decided to extend the
Flash Flood Watch through 7PM in case another round of storms
develops, which is certainly possible in this current regime.

The upper level low has opened up a bit and now contains several
shortwaves on its southwest flank. These small waves are providing
just enough lift to properly vent storms over the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Latest GOES water vapor shows very cold cloud
temperatures over east Central Arkansas at this hour. This
complex of storms will slowly migrate into the Mid-South over the
next several hours, bringing the threat of more prolific rainfall.
WPC has gone ahead and issued a High Risk of Excessive Rainfall
for almost all of north Mississippi with a moderate risk around
the high and into portions of west Tennessee. The rest of the area
is in a slight risk. PWAT values of over 2 inches remain above
the 99th percentile range, which explains the prolific rainfall
that we have received.

There is still some concern that the flash flood threat could
continue into Thursday morning as the upper low remains nearly
stationary and the airmass relatively unchanged. As a result, a
flash flood watch may still be needed through Thursday morning.

Several more shortwaves will rotate through the region Thursday
into Friday and will reignite showers and thunderstorms over much
of the Mid-South including already hard hit Mississippi and
southeastern Arkansas. Will continue to advertise the threat in
the HWO through Friday.

The upper low will finally lift out of the Mid-South by Friday
night, bringing us a much needed break from the rain. However,
models continue to hint that the Mid-South will remain on the
eastern periphery of the ridge over the Southern Plains. This
solution keeps us in the main storm track and keeps rain chances
up. In fact, we may not see a break from the rain until Sunday as
drier northwest flow sets up over the area.

Models are consistent with a cold front moving through the region
on Monday and more showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front,
widespread dry conditions will return to the Mid-South and will
hopefully persist through the end of the week.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

In the short term...expect SHRAs and TSRAs to continue to develop
across east-central AR and N MS overnight. Latest HRRR has
convection pushing into the KMEM area overnight as well. Going
with periods of SHRAs with VCTS at KMEM and KTUP overnight into
Wednesday AM. Fairly quiet precip wise at KJBR and KMKL. Otrw
expect cigs to lower to IFR/MVFR areawide overnight with LIFR
likely at KJBR. Cigs will slowly improve to VFR by Wed afternoon
with additional SHRA/TSRA development due to heating...though
KTUP will likely be worked over and relatively quiet during the
afternoon. South winds at 6-8 kts overnight becoming SSW at 7-10
kts with a few higher gusts Wed aftn.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Lee AR-Phillips.

MO...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
530 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-101230-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
530 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Significant flash flooding, areal flooding, and river flooding is
expected to continue through this afternoon across all of north
Mississippi and southeast Arkansas. The flooding threat may extend
into portions of west Tennessee, mainly along the state border of
Mississippi.

A few strong to severe storms are possible today, mainly across
north Mississippi. Damaging winds are the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on both
Thursday and Friday. This additional rainfall could exacerbate
flooding issues across the Mid-South, especially hard hit areas of
north Mississippi.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

AC3