Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1226 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/

DISCUSSION...
A complex convective setup for the remainder of the afternoon,
with respect to timing of thunderstorm initiation. A weak
shortwave trof, evident on GOES water vapor imagery lifted across
AR into southeast MO late in the morning. With cool and relatively
stable outflow over west TN from this morning's rainfall, this
shortwave had little effect, other than to sustain showers near
the MO bootheel. KNQA VAD wind profiler showed winds backed
briefly, then winds veered in response to the shortwave. With this
feature now past, SSW boundary layer flow at early afternoon was
not lending toward particularly high SRH values.

Temps in the lower 80s and dewpoints near 70 should support mixed
layer CAPE near 2500 J/kG over north MS, southwest TN and east
central AR through sunset. Storm intuition may be a little
disorganized in location at first, but should cluster and organize
around subsequent outflow boundaries. As, or perhaps before,
mixed layer CAPE begins to slowly decrease, 0-6km bulk shear will
increase to near 60 knots, aiding storm organization and hail
threat. Areas of locally-enhanced helicity near outflow boundaries
may support a tornado or two in the moderately unstable airmass
through midevening. A gradual transition to a QLCS is expected mid
to late evening, with damaging winds, and short-lived QLCS
tornadoes possible. Up-line cell training and precipitable water
values near 1.8 inches will support high rainfall rates and flash
flooding.

The convective line should exit northeast MS near or shortly after
sunrise Sunday, with cool and dry candidness prevailing across
the Midsouth.

Modest moisture return will occur Tuesday afternoon and evening,
in advance of a deep longwave trof developing over the middle
portion of the CONUS. Steep midlevel height falls will accompany a
cold frontal passage through the Midsouth early Wednesday morning.
Given the lack of instability, severe storms are not anticipated
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Cool and dry conditions will prevail late in the week, as upper
level flow transitions from northwesterly to zonal. Rural areas
to the north and east of Memphis may see nighttime lows near
freezing, near to just a little earlier than our average last
spring freeze dates.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
For 06Z TAFs

Thunderstorms still moving through the Mid-South, however, they
are through Memphis and Jonesboro. As thunderstorms move through
the Tupelo area there may be some severe squalls. Winds behind
the system will be from the north-northwest and gusty. Winds will
remain gusty on Sunday. Winds will decrease late on Sunday as
clearer skies move into the Mid-South.  TLSJr

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St.
     Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Dunklin-
     Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Alcorn-Benton
     MS-DeSoto-Marshall-Prentiss-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-
     Union.

TN...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Benton TN-
     Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-
     Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-
     Madison-McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
303 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-282215-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
303 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a Slight to Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over
the Midsouth through late tonight. Primary severe weather threats
include flash flooding and damaging winds. There is also a threat
of tornadoes and large hail, mainly before midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Near freezing temperatures will be possible Thursday and Friday
mornings over northwest Tennessee.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely through late tonight.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1133 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COMO                    34.51N  89.94W
03/27/2021                   PANOLA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MOBILE HOMES FLIPPED OVER IN THE COMO AREA.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1137 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JACKSON                 35.63N  88.83W
03/27/2021                   MADISON            TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            CHESTER STREET FLOODED WITH 2 TO 3 FEET OF WATER NEAR
            THE UPTOWN AREA OF JACKSON.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1229 AM CDT SUN MAR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRAND JUNCTION          35.05N  89.19W
03/27/2021                   HARDEMAN           TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON HOUSES AND MOBILE HOMES. TREE
            ACROSS ROADWAYS. POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

SMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
215 AM CDT SUN MAR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     TSTM WND DMG     INDEPENDENCE            34.70N  89.80W
03/27/2021                   TATE               MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            9000-9200 HWY 306 METAL TORN OFF ROOF. TWO TRAILERS
            DEMOLISHED WITH DEBRIS FOUND NEAR SYCAMORE ROAD. 1 SHOP
            DEMOLISHED.

&&

SMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
235 AM CDT SUN MAR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BRUCE                   33.99N  89.34W
03/28/2021                   CALHOUN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE FELL ONTO A HOUSE ON DENTON STREET

&&

SMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
322 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

MSZ024-280845-
Monroe MS-
322 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 345 AM CDT
FOR...

Monroe County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 322 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near New Wren, or near Amory, moving east at 60 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Monroe County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3368 8849 3368 8872 3397 8872 3409 8871
      3408 8820 3375 8825 3374 8833 3372 8833
      3369 8836 3368 8838 3369 8839 3367 8841
      3367 8845 3366 8846 3366 8851
TIME...MOT...LOC 0822Z 265DEG 52KT 3392 8855