Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
644 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

.UPDATE...
Update for 00Z TAFS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/

DISCUSSION...
A complex convective setup for the remainder of the afternoon,
with respect to timing of thunderstorm initiation. A weak
shortwave trof, evident on GOES water vapor imagery lifted across
AR into southeast MO late in the morning. With cool and relatively
stable outflow over west TN from this morning's rainfall, this
shortwave had little effect, other than to sustain showers near
the MO bootheel. KNQA VAD wind profiler showed winds backed
briefly, then winds veered in response to the shortwave. With this
feature now past, SSW boundary layer flow at early afternoon was
not lending toward particularly high SRH values.

Temps in the lower 80s and dewpoints near 70 should support mixed
layer CAPE near 2500 J/kG over north MS, southwest TN and east
central AR through sunset. Storm intuition may be a little
disorganized in location at first, but should cluster and organize
around subsequent outflow boundaries. As, or perhaps before,
mixed layer CAPE begins to slowly decrease, 0-6km bulk shear will
increase to near 60 knots, aiding storm organization and hail
threat. Areas of locally-enhanced helicity near outflow boundaries
may support a tornado or two in the moderately unstable airmass
through midevening. A gradual transition to a QLCS is expected mid
to late evening, with damaging winds, and short-lived QLCS
tornadoes possible. Up-line cell training and precipitable water
values near 1.8 inches will support high rainfall rates and flash
flooding.

The convective line should exit northeast MS near or shortly after
sunrise Sunday, with cool and dry candidness prevailing across
the Midsouth.

Modest moisture return will occur Tuesday afternoon and evening,
in advance of a deep longwave trof developing over the middle
portion of the CONUS. Steep midlevel height falls will accompany a
cold frontal passage through the Midsouth early Wednesday morning.
Given the lack of instability, severe storms are not anticipated
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Cool and dry conditions will prevail late in the week, as upper
level flow transitions from northwesterly to zonal. Rural areas
to the north and east of Memphis may see nighttime lows near
freezing, near to just a little earlier than our average last
spring freeze dates.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

Thunderstorms will form a squall line early in the period. There is
the potential for severe gusts as the squall line moves through
MEM/MKL/TUP. This feature is forced by a cold front which will sweep
through the area overnight.  On Sunday strong northwest winds will
spread over the area before high pressure builds into the region
late in the day with winds relaxing late.

 JEB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St.
     Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     DeSoto-Marshall-Prentiss-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-
     Union.

TN...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
303 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-282215-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
303 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a Slight to Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over
the Midsouth through late tonight. Primary severe weather threats
include flash flooding and damaging winds. There is also a threat
of tornadoes and large hail, mainly before midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Near freezing temperatures will be possible Thursday and Friday
mornings over northwest Tennessee.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely through late tonight.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
717 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TORNADO          LEXINGTON               35.65N  88.39W
03/27/2021                   HENDERSON          TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            5 STRUCTURES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE AND 3 WITH MINOR
            DAMAGES. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
722 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

TNZ050-052-280045-
Madison TN-Haywood TN-
722 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR...

Southwestern Madison County in western Tennessee...
Southern Haywood County in western Tennessee...

At 722 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing penny to nickel size
hail and winds 35 to 45 mph was located over Dancyville, or 11 miles
south of Brownsville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

People in southwestern Madison and southern Haywood Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3540 8929 3540 8941 3546 8947 3566 8927
      3552 8888
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 234DEG 27KT 3544 8933

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
729 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW LEXINGTON          35.63N  88.42W
03/27/2021                   HENDERSON          TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HOUSE PARTIALLY DESTROYED AND SEVERAL TREES DOWN HWY 22
            SOUTHWEST OF LEXINGTON NEAR COMMUNITY OF MIDDLEFORK.
            POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION...REMARKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
734 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 AM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST MEMPHIS            35.13N  89.87W
03/27/2021                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON CHERRY ROAD NEAR PARK IN MEMPHIS.

0630 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS    35.13N  90.01W
03/27/2021                   SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CENTRAL AVE NEAR LIBERTY BOWL IMPASSABLE.

0925 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ADAMSVILLE              35.23N  88.39W
03/27/2021                   MCNAIRY            TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            FLOODING ACROSS ELM ROAD. ROAD IMPASSABLE

1016 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SAVANNAH                35.22N  88.24W
03/27/2021                   HARDIN             TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FLOODING ACROSS COBBLESTONE DR JUST NORTH OF SAVANNAH,
            TN. ROAD IMPASSABLE.

1021 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SAVANNAH                35.22N  88.24W
03/27/2021                   HARDIN             TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FLOODING ACROSS GLENDALE ROAD NEAR HWY 69 JUST NW OF
            SAVANNAH, TN. ROAD IMPASSABLE.

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NE SELMER               35.17N  88.59W
03/27/2021                   MCNAIRY            TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            FLOODING AT SELMER CITY PARK.

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW LEXINGTON          35.63N  88.42W
03/27/2021                   HENDERSON          TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HOUSE PARTIALLY DESTROYED AND SEVERAL TREES DOWN HWY 22
            SOUTHWEST OF LEXINGTON NEAR COMMUNITY OF MIDDLEFORK.
            POSSIBLE TORNADO.

0435 PM     TORNADO          LEXINGTON               35.65N  88.39W
03/27/2021                   HENDERSON          TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            5 STRUCTURES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE AND 3 WITH MINOR
            DAMAGES. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0443 PM     HAIL             3 S LEXINGTON           35.61N  88.39W
03/27/2021  M1.75 INCH       HENDERSON          TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN THE PINE LAKE AREA.

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JACKS CREEK             35.47N  88.53W
03/27/2021                   CHESTER            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 22A
            AND MIDDLEFORK ROAD.

0459 PM     HAIL             REAGAN                  35.52N  88.35W
03/27/2021  M1.75 INCH       HENDERSON          TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL IN SHADY HILL AREA.

0500 PM     HAIL             SCOTTS HILL             35.52N  88.25W
03/27/2021  M1.00 INCH       HENDERSON          TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

0502 PM     TSTM WND DMG     REAGAN                  35.52N  88.35W
03/27/2021                   HENDERSON          TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE NEAR TOWN OF REAGAN. POSSIBLE
            TORNADO.

0505 PM     HAIL             ABERDEEN                33.83N  88.55W
03/27/2021  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN ABERDEEN.

0515 PM     HAIL             PARSONS                 35.65N  88.12W
03/27/2021  M1.00 INCH       DECATUR            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

0610 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 W BASSETT             35.54N  90.15W
03/27/2021                   MISSISSIPPI        AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BASSETT                 35.54N  90.13W
03/27/2021                   MISSISSIPPI        AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SEMI TRUCK BLOWN OVER ON INTERSTATE 55 NEAR BASSETT.

0612 PM     TORNADO          10 NW PARKIN            35.37N  90.68W
03/27/2021                   CROSS              AR   STORM CHASER

            RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO NW OF PARKIN.

0623 PM     TORNADO          WILSON                  35.57N  90.04W
03/27/2021                   MISSISSIPPI        AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO TRAILERS AND HOMES AND A SHOP
            DESTROYED. TREES DOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0625 PM     TORNADO          KEISER                  35.67N  90.09W
03/27/2021                   MISSISSIPPI        AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO SPOTTED BETWEEN KEISER AND
            OSCEOLA.

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARIE                   35.61N  90.08W
03/27/2021                   MISSISSIPPI        AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL MOBILE HOME TIPPED OVER ON HGWY 119 JUST OUTSIDE
            OF MARIE. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

0637 PM     TORNADO          4 SE OSCEOLA            35.66N  89.94W
03/27/2021                   MISSISSIPPI        AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO CROSSING MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO TENNESSEE.

0652 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     FT PILLOW               35.67N  89.75W
03/27/2021                   LAUDERDALE         TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            2 FUNNEL CLOUDS SPOTTED.

0655 PM     TORNADO          GILMORE                 35.41N  90.28W
03/27/2021                   CRITTENDEN         AR   STORM CHASER

            TORNADO SPOTTED WEST OF GILMORE.

0659 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WYNNE                   35.23N  90.79W
03/27/2021                   CROSS              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGHWAY 1 AND VANDALE POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
741 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

TNZ052-053-090-280115-
Hardeman TN-Chester TN-Madison TN-
741 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Hardeman County in western Tennessee...
Northwestern Chester County in western Tennessee...
Southeastern Madison County in western Tennessee...

At 741 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Chickasaw State
Forest, moving northeast at 50 mph.

People in northeastern Hardeman...northwestern Chester and
southeastern Madison Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3523 8886 3533 8901 3558 8886 3567 8861
      3565 8861 3564 8860 3563 8860 3562 8861
      3559 8861 3559 8857 3554 8854 3551 8851
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 224DEG 42KT 3538 8886

MJ

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