Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
644 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

.UPDATE...
Update for 00Z TAFS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/

DISCUSSION...
A complex convective setup for the remainder of the afternoon,
with respect to timing of thunderstorm initiation. A weak
shortwave trof, evident on GOES water vapor imagery lifted across
AR into southeast MO late in the morning. With cool and relatively
stable outflow over west TN from this morning's rainfall, this
shortwave had little effect, other than to sustain showers near
the MO bootheel. KNQA VAD wind profiler showed winds backed
briefly, then winds veered in response to the shortwave. With this
feature now past, SSW boundary layer flow at early afternoon was
not lending toward particularly high SRH values.

Temps in the lower 80s and dewpoints near 70 should support mixed
layer CAPE near 2500 J/kG over north MS, southwest TN and east
central AR through sunset. Storm intuition may be a little
disorganized in location at first, but should cluster and organize
around subsequent outflow boundaries. As, or perhaps before,
mixed layer CAPE begins to slowly decrease, 0-6km bulk shear will
increase to near 60 knots, aiding storm organization and hail
threat. Areas of locally-enhanced helicity near outflow boundaries
may support a tornado or two in the moderately unstable airmass
through midevening. A gradual transition to a QLCS is expected mid
to late evening, with damaging winds, and short-lived QLCS
tornadoes possible. Up-line cell training and precipitable water
values near 1.8 inches will support high rainfall rates and flash
flooding.

The convective line should exit northeast MS near or shortly after
sunrise Sunday, with cool and dry candidness prevailing across
the Midsouth.

Modest moisture return will occur Tuesday afternoon and evening,
in advance of a deep longwave trof developing over the middle
portion of the CONUS. Steep midlevel height falls will accompany a
cold frontal passage through the Midsouth early Wednesday morning.
Given the lack of instability, severe storms are not anticipated
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Cool and dry conditions will prevail late in the week, as upper
level flow transitions from northwesterly to zonal. Rural areas
to the north and east of Memphis may see nighttime lows near
freezing, near to just a little earlier than our average last
spring freeze dates.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

Thunderstorms will form a squall line early in the period. There is
the potential for severe gusts as the squall line moves through
MEM/MKL/TUP. This feature is forced by a cold front which will sweep
through the area overnight.  On Sunday strong northwest winds will
spread over the area before high pressure builds into the region
late in the day with winds relaxing late.

 JEB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St.
     Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     DeSoto-Marshall-Prentiss-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-
     Union.

TN...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
303 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-282215-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
303 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a Slight to Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over
the Midsouth through late tonight. Primary severe weather threats
include flash flooding and damaging winds. There is also a threat
of tornadoes and large hail, mainly before midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Near freezing temperatures will be possible Thursday and Friday
mornings over northwest Tennessee.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely through late tonight.

PWB

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