Alert archive / Texas / Special Weather Statements in 2021

Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

May 15, 2021Winkler County, Texas

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this special weather statement at May 15, 2021, 5:14 PM CDT for Winkler County, Texas. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 15, 2021, 5:14 PM CDT (22:14 UTC)
Expired: May 15, 2021, 6:00 PM CDT
In force: 46 min
Issued by: NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

County Winkler County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 75 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 74 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 254 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -312 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1150 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 86 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 162 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 15, 1:51 PM CDT, 3 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 15, 1:51 PM CDT, 3 hours 23 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
151 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is centered over California and Nevada with westerly
flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A dryline is present
across the area this afternoon with dewpoints climbing into the
60s across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. CAPE values
east of the dryline will generally be 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg with 0
to 6 km bulk shear values from 35 to 45 kts. CAPE and shear values
are expected to be highest across Pecos, Terrell, and Brewster
Counties. Mid-level lapse rates will generally be marginal
according to the NAM12. Omega values will be enhanced across
portions of the area this afternoon into tonight as upper level
shortwaves move overhead. Severe thunderstorms are possible, given
these conditions, this afternoon into tonight across most of West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds but an isolated tornado or two is
possible.

The upper low moves over Southern California/Southern Nevada on
Sunday with another dryline across West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico. The CAPE and shear values are expected to be less tomorrow
than today but strong to severe storms will still be possible.
Temperatures are expected to warm up on Sunday into the 80s and 90s,
especially west of the dryline. The previously mentioned upper low
moves over the Four Corners region on Monday with the dryline
expected to be across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. The upper low/trough begins to move over the region on
Tuesday with a dryline present and a cold front moving southward
into the area during the morning. Severe storms will be possible
along the cold front and dryline intersection. Most of the rain and
storms should be east of the area on Wednesday with temperatures
generally in the 80s and 90s. Similar conditions are expected on
Thursday as a big upper trough moves over the west coast. Showers
and thunderstorms chances will increase on Friday as the upper
trough to the west begins to move/expand eastward. This same trend
will continue into next Saturday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and storms are developing in the Guadalupe Mountains and
will add fuel moisture. Where and how much rain will be important
since tomorrow relative humidities bottom out into the single digits
and winds increase to 20 to 30 mph. ERC values are already below the
50th percentile and any additional rain may drop the ERCs further so
despite dangerous weather conditions, the overall fire danger threat
may be reduced. Do not see a Red Flag Warning being needed but a
Fire Danger Statement may be warranted for Sunday and perhaps again
on Monday when similar conditions are expected. Will let the
midnight shift make the final assessment on this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  87  66  89 /  50  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       59  91  58  89 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         65  92  68  94 /  50  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  63  92  64  93 /  50  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 59  84  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          59  88  59  87 /  30   0   0   0
Marfa                          52  87  49  87 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  89  65  90 /  50  10  10  10
Odessa                         63  89  65  91 /  50  10  10  10
Wink                           62  95  60  94 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

10/80

Hazardous weather outlook, May 15, 2:05 PM CDT, 3 hours 9 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
205 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-161915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
205 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021 /105 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe storms will be possible across much of the area
this afternoon and evening with the best chances across the Northern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. The main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds. A tornado may also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is the potential for strong to severe storms on Sunday across
the eastern most portion of the Permian Basin.

Elevated fire weather conditions may exist across the west on Sunday
and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 15, 4:32 PM CDT, 42 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
332 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021

NMZ028-152215-
Eddy County Plains NM-
332 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM MDT...

At 331 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 7
miles north of Artesia, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Artesia, Hope, Atoka and Artesia Municipal Airport.

LAT...LON 3296 10484 3297 10406 3292 10403 3251 10485
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 245DEG 15KT 3294 10445

89

Special weather statement, May 15, 4:53 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
453 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

NMZ028-TXZ059-273-274-152245-
Eddy County Plains NM-Loving TX-Eastern Culberson County TX-
Reeves County Plains TX-
453 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN EDDY...SOUTHWESTERN
LEA...NORTHWESTERN REEVES...NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON AND NORTHWESTERN
LOVING COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT/445 PM MDT/...

At 452 PM CDT/352 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms over Loving, or 10 miles southeast of Carlsbad, moving
northeast at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carlsbad, Loving, Red Bluff Reservoir, Malaga, Whites City, Carlsbad
Caverns National Park and Otis.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT/1000
PM MDT/ for southeastern New Mexico...and western and southwestern
Texas.

LAT...LON 3213 10455 3214 10455 3214 10453 3215 10454
      3216 10454 3216 10455 3244 10403 3206 10372
      3203 10372 3184 10409
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 240DEG 6KT 3227 10413

89

Local storm report, May 15, 4:57 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
457 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             7 E FORT STOCKTON       30.89N 102.77W
05/15/2021  E1.25 INCH       Pecos              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORT OF 1-1 1/4 HAIL DRIVING THROUGH STORM
            HEADING WESTBOUND INTO FORT STOCKTON.

&&

SCOTT.KLEEBAUER

Special weather statement, May 15, 5:03 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
503 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

TXZ075-278-152245-
Pecos TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
503 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PECOS AND NORTH
CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 503 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 22
miles southwest of Fort Stockton, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Madera.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3048 10330 3056 10337 3087 10323 3086 10275
      3046 10271
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 257DEG 22KT 3066 10315

89

Local storm report, May 15, 5:06 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
506 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S PINE SPRINGS        31.82N 104.81W
05/15/2021  M62 MPH          Culberson          TX   ASOS

            GUADALUPE PASS ASOS

&&

SCOTT.KLEEBAUER

Special weather statement, May 15, 5:14 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
514 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

TXZ060-061-067-068-152300-
Crane TX-Ector TX-Ward TX-Winkler TX-
514 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ECTOR...NORTHEASTERN
WARD...SOUTHERN WINKLER AND NORTHWESTERN CRANE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

At 513 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms over
Thorntonville, or near Monahans, moving east at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Monahans, Wink, Thorntonville, Wickett, Roy Hurd Memorial Airport,
Monahans Sandhills State Park and Winkler County Airport.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 68 and 96.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3188 10291 3169 10264 3145 10278 3146 10307
      3177 10321
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 250DEG 7KT 3160 10297

89

The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 14, 7:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Jeff Davis	47 min
May 14, 8:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Culberson, Reeves	43 min
May 14, 8:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF		40 min
May 14, 9:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Presidio	40 min
May 14, 9:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Reeves	51 min
May 15, 2:29 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Reeves	31 min
May 15, 3:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	39 min
May 15, 3:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Reeves	52 min
May 15, 3:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	43 min
May 15, 4:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Reeves	43 min
May 15, 4:08 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Pecos	3 hr
May 15, 4:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Ward	43 min
May 15, 4:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	48 min
May 15, 4:29 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Ward	46 min
May 15, 4:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Pecos, Terrell	61 min
May 15, 5:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	42 min
May 15, 5:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Reeves	43 min
May 15, 5:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Pecos, Terrell	51 min
May 15, 5:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Culberson	49 min
May 15, 5:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	48 min
May 15, 5:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	45 min
May 15, 5:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Ector	48 min
May 15, 5:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Cochran	18 min
May 15, 6:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Andrews, Ector, Winkler	39 min
May 15, 6:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Pecos, Terrell	50 min
May 15, 6:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Loving	49 min
May 15, 6:19 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Reeves	41 min
May 15, 6:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Gaines	50 min
May 15, 6:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Loving	45 min
May 15, 6:36 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Ector	39 min
May 15, 6:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Pecos, Terrell	64 min
May 15, 6:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	48 min
May 15, 6:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Andrews, Ector, Martin, Midland	46 min
May 15, 6:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Terrell	44 min
May 14, 7:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Eddy	47 min
May 14, 7:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Eddy	42 min
May 14, 8:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Eddy	42 min
May 14, 8:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Eddy	49 min
May 14, 8:14 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Eddy	3 hr
May 14, 8:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Eddy	44 min
May 14, 8:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Eddy	48 min
May 14, 9:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Lea	45 min
May 15, 4:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Eddy	43 min
May 15, 4:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Eddy	52 min
May 15, 4:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Eddy	61 min
May 15, 5:32 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Eddy	3 hr
May 15, 5:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Eddy	45 min
May 15, 5:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Eddy	32 min
May 15, 6:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Lea	50 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Texas, 2021 Every special weather statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.